US annual inflation rose to 3.7% in September from 3.4%, above forecasts, as gasoline prices climbed. Diesel has climbed faster than gasoline since February and pay has trailed prices since March, so operators face pressure on two cost lines.
Perspective Coverage
28 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 8%
- Operator
- Operator 31%
- Investor
- Investor 61%
Reality
- Evidence84
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives50
- Confidence80
Bitcoin dropped below $80,000 on Thursday after September PPI came in at 6.3% annually, a day after a hot CPI report. CoinGlass counted $948.22 million of liquidations, 90.6% of them longs, and Nexo says US spot ETF holders are back underwater.
Perspective Coverage
13 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 1%
- Operator
- Operator 35%
- Investor
- Investor 64%
Reality
- Evidence66
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence68
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said he will spend the next 100 days on supervision, regulation and payments processing after months absorbed by monetary policy. It lands days before the Fed's Oct. 27-28 meeting, the first of the rate decisions that will compete for his time.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 9%
- Operator
- Operator 25%
- Investor
- Investor 66%
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence70
Bitcoin falls below $80,000 after hot inflation reports, under the $81,500 ETF cost basis, as ETFs see $859 million in outflows over six sessions
Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on Oct. 15 after September CPI hit 3.7% and producer prices rose 1.3% on the month, CryptoSlate reported. Sygnum's base case is a range-bound market into the Oct. 28 Fed meeting, with options pricing $80,000 to $87,000 and spot already below the floor.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence60
KOSPI rose 2.05% to 5,668.05 on Friday, ending a seven-day losing streak. Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, which fell 9.48% and 11.06% the session before, are still about 7% and 10% below their earlier closes.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 6%
- Operator
- Operator 17%
- Investor
- Investor 77%
Reality
- Evidence78
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence76
South Korea's won closed at 1,331.4 per dollar, its strongest since Oct. 2, 2024, after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave no signal on October's meeting. The 13.2-won gain came a day after KOSPI fell more than 7%, so how long it holds depends on foreign money.
Reality
- Evidence74
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence72
Moynihan weighs a 24-year-high Treasury yield against a 226-year average of about 5%
Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan says a 226-year average of about 5% puts the 10-year Treasury yield of 5.36% in perspective. He pairs it with strong consumer spending, and his economists forecast three more Fed rate increases.
Publishers:irishtimes.com
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap−5
- Incentives55
- Confidence60
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is interviewed in Bangkok on Friday, the last Fed speech before a blackout through the Oct. 27-28 meeting. Bank of America says inflation strengthens the case for an October hike. That meeting ends six days before the midterms.
Reality
- Evidence66
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence70
Samsung, SK Hynix and SoftBank lost 9.5%, 11% and 9.3% in Asia while the 30-year Treasury yield fell 9.1 basis points. The drop added only 2.6% to the present value of a 30-year dollar, so the cause looks like AI borrowing and late revenue, with inflation as an add-on.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 12%
- Operator
- Operator 12%
- Investor
- Investor 76%
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence72
US stocks had their worst day since July on October 14, the Nasdaq down 1.9% and the S&P 500 down 1.1%, after September CPI hit 3.7% against 3.6% expected. That was the S&P 500's fifth loss in six sessions since its record, so the print hit a market already selling.
Perspective Coverage
6 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 9%
- Operator
- Operator 14%
- Investor
- Investor 77%
Reality
- Evidence80
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives30
- Confidence78
Falling Treasury yields and gold up 1% point to risk reduction, with some stagflation fears mixed in
Gold rose 1% while the 10-year Treasury yield fell eight basis points to 5.08% and copper slid nearly 1%, CoinDesk reported. CME futures put a Fed hike this month at 29%, down from nearly 50% after Wednesday's CPI, and we think that weakens the inflation half of the stagflation story.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
Fed hike odds for October doubled on Kalshi after a 0.6% CPI print
Traders put a 24.9% chance on a 25 basis point Fed hike on Oct. 28 after September CPI rose 0.6% month over month. On $100 million of floating-rate debt a 25 basis point hike adds $250,000 a year; weighted at 24.9%, the October share is about $62,000.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
Gasoline lifts US inflation to 3.7% in September, above forecasts
US annual inflation rose to 3.7% in September from 3.4% in August, above forecasts, the BBC reported from official figures. Energy drove the increase and core inflation was 2.6%, so fuel and heating budgets have a firmer case for revision than general costs do.
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap−5
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence65
Korea's won closed at 1,338.3 per dollar on Wednesday, 6.8 won stronger, after the New York Fed's John Williams said one more hike may be needed this year. Foreign investors sold a net 1.18 trillion won of shares, a seventh straight session, Yonhap reported.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence66
Bitcoin held between about $83,500 and $83,900 on Wednesday, under $84,000, ahead of the September US inflation report. Sources differ on whether Williams' remarks lifted the price, and targets of $85,000 and $93,000 wait on the same print.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence62
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the September CPI to show 3.7% annual inflation, up from 3.4%, NBC News reported. Operators budgeting freight costs face a fuel that has outrun gasoline, and the clearest pass-through evidence so far comes from airlines.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence60
Boston Fed's Collins expects rates to rise "a bit further" with inflation nearly six years above 2%
Boston Fed President Susan Collins said the Fed will have to raise rates "a bit further" after last month's 25-basis-point hike. Her own central case still has inflation easing to 2%, so how far depends on whether fuel and AI-construction costs spread.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap−5
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence58
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said AI-linked price increases are spreading beyond data centers while August inflation was 3.4%. September's figures, due this week, test his fear against Governor Lisa Cook's view that the boom is a sector-specific shift.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 15%
- Operator
- Operator 28%
- Investor
- Investor 57%
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence58
Dollar eases from an 18-month high as traders price a Fed pause now and 75bp of hikes later
Dollar index slid 0.25% to 102.29 on Tuesday, just under its 18-month high, as traders bet Middle East tension stays contained before the midterms. Wednesday's CPI tests a Fed priced at an 80% hold this month and 75bp of tightening by late 2027.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence65
Russell 2000 heads into the vote up 15.1% against a 0.5% average across 11 midterm years
Russell 2000 is up about 15.1% this year, but Furey Research found an average 0.5% gain across 11 midterm years, with gains in only 45% of them. The post-election record bulls cite looks very different once the last four midterms are included.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
Earlier coverage
- CoinShares bets debt-driven Treasury yields will steer bitcoin more than the Fed
Invest · October 9, 2026 · Confirmed2 publishers
- Cellphone bills supplied a third of the core CPI move that repriced next week's Fed hike to 85%
Invest · September 11, 2026 · Confirmed10 publishers
- Front-end Treasury yields flipped from one cut to four hikes since late February
Invest · September 12, 2026 · Confirmed6 publishers
- Bitcoin futures open interest grows $2.3 billion in the payroll rally past $87,000
Invest · October 4, 2026 · Confirmed13 publishers
- A 48-point drop in Fed hike odds fails to stop the 10-year yield's climb to a 2002 high
Invest · October 5, 2026 · Confirmed2 publishers
- Mega-cap tech carries the Nasdaq to a record against a 5.31% 10-year yield
Invest · October 5, 2026 · Confirmed2 publishers
- Buyers pull the 10-year Treasury yield back to 5.233% from a 24-year high of 5.34%
Invest · October 1, 2026 · Confirmed3 publishers
- Bitcoin gains 0.9% after August core PCE comes in at 3.0% against 3.3% expected
Invest · September 30, 2026 · Confirmed3 publishers
- Retail sales fell 0.6% in July, and the bad-news trade is about a hike, not a cut
Invest · August 14, 2026 · Confirmed4 publishers
- With September Hike Odds Fading, the AI Financing Trade Is Now the Index Risk
Invest · August 15, 2026 · Confirmed5 publishers
- A 2.9 basis point day carried the 10-year over 5% for the second time since 2007
Invest · September 14, 2026 · Confirmed6 publishers
- Hike odds in the high 80s pull copper off its $14,500 record
Invest · September 13, 2026 · One report1 publisher
- Government payrolls account for the whole of July's 23,000-job decline
Invest · August 29, 2026 · Confirmed3 publishers
- LinkedIn's seasonality data prices September as the year's most crowded month to post a job
Invest · September 5, 2026 · Confirmed11 publishers
- Producer input costs ran 6.1 points ahead of final demand prices in August
Invest · September 12, 2026 · Confirmed2 publishers
- September Fed hike odds climb to 45.5% from 31% in a week
Invest · August 30, 2026 · One report1 publisher