Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour says state policing would drive US prediction markets offshore, though two of three appeals courts have sided with states. Sports slid from 95% of Kalshi's revenue to about two-thirds, a share change that cannot show how much volume left.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives80
- Confidence65
NBA seeks prediction-market trade data and listing control 11 days before its opener
NBA Commissioner Adam Silver wants prediction-market trade data and a say over listings before the October 20 opener, he told CNBC. The league's April requests go further than the CFTC's own proposal, so opening night will likely trade under the rules platforms already have.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives50
- Confidence40
Kalshi asks the CFTC to approve a WTI futures contract that expires once a decade
Kalshi has asked the CFTC to approve a WTI futures contract that expires only once every 10 years. The agency's 45-day review will test whether closing on weekends clears the benchmark-pricing concern that sank CME's round-the-clock oil plan.
Reality
- Evidence35
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives60
- Confidence40
Former Representative Adam Kinzinger is under CFTC investigation over Kalshi bets on his own pardon that made him $823, Politico reported. Exchanges listing markets on named people must now decide whether being a contract's subject is enough to bar a trade.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 12%
- Operator
- Operator 48%
- Investor
- Investor 40%
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives60
- Confidence60
Terry Duffy mocked Kalshi's hot dog contract; Luana Lopes Lara asked about CME's manipulation record. The live question is whether event contracts get exchange-grade oversight, and who writes it.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 17%
- Operator
- Operator 48%
- Investor
- Investor 35%
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives72
- Confidence66
1789 Capital's new money works out to about 1.4 percent of Polymarket at the $21 billion mark, roughly a fifteenth of what ICE holds, and the change the disclosed record shows since April is jurisdictional rather than financial.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 9%
- Operator
- Operator 34%
- Investor
- Investor 57%
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives72
- Confidence60
CFTC staff tell exchanges to justify each contract that settles on one person's words
The Division of Market Oversight's September 22 advisory leaves mention markets legal, and it tells exchanges that a contract settling on one named person's conduct starts from a heightened manipulation risk they must answer contract by contract.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption40
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives55
- Confidence58
Bernstein's $10 trillion prediction-market call rests on half a percent of a $900 trillion pool
Bernstein now sees $10 trillion of annual prediction-market volume by 2035 against about $410 billion now, with financial contracts at 49% of the mix, and the total traces back to one penetration assumption.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption62
- Hype gap+55
- Incentives58
- Confidence44
Kalshi says three out of four of its users don't trade
A Kalshi spokesperson gave WIRED that figure while arguing the informational use of its odds is the popular one. Both exchanges are now licensing those odds to large media companies with the legal fight over what they are unresolved.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+33
- Incentives80
- Confidence52
Polymarket mails a daily news roundup that links each story to a market on it
Polymarket's daily dispatch summarises the day's news and links out to its own yes/no markets, part of a broader push by prediction markets into publishing. Kalshi says three out of four of its users never trade.
Reality
- Evidence57
- Adoption46
- Hype gap+26
- Incentives78
- Confidence61
The goat herder's hedge: $50,000 on Kalshi against a California wage deadline
Tim Arrowsmith bought $500,000 of protection on a state rule fix that no insurer would quote. What the price implies, and what the trigger date does not cover, matter more than the anecdote.
Reality
- Evidence24
- Adoption16
- Hype gap+42
- Incentives82
- Confidence41