Short sellers may sit behind the utilities ETF inflow that made September look defensive
Defensive sector funds took in $1.8 billion in September while sector ETFs as a whole lost $112 million, The Daily Upside reported. State Street's Matt Bartolini says flows into one utilities fund hint at shares created for short sellers to borrow.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence50
US spot Ether ETFs had $542 million of net redemptions in the five sessions to October 9, extending their outflow streak to nine days. By 247 Wall St.'s count, fund assets fell $1.98 billion over those days, about three-quarters of it from Ether's lower price.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives30
- Confidence65
US spot bitcoin ETFs took in $21.13 million on October 9 as ether funds lost $56.10 million, a ninth straight day of outflows. Netted together, about $35 million left the two groups, so the bitcoin rebound is too small to show institutions coming back.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption62
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence70
US spot Bitcoin ETFs shed about $485 million in a single session, enough to push October's flows below zero. Because that exit is small against the funds' asset base, oil prices and Treasury yields look like the stronger force behind the wider crypto sell-off.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption72
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence68
Bond ETF inflows match the top S&P 500 funds with the 10-year yield above 5%
Five bond ETFs took in $24.89 billion in the month to Oct. 8, level with the $24.88 billion that went into two S&P 500 funds, according to Koscom data. Most of the bond money went to aggregate and municipal funds that lost between 2% and 3.3%, so investors are buying duration alongside stocks priced at 19 times forward earnings.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
US spot ether ETFs lost about $408 million in six straight sessions, half of it on Tuesday from BlackRock's ETHA alone. Bitcoin funds took in $119 million that day after losing $90 million on Monday, too little over two sessions to have absorbed the ether money.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives35
- Confidence62
Bitcoin ETFs took in $6.34 billion in the third quarter as the coin rose nearly 43%, about $3.1 billion of it in a nine-day September streak. The money is real, but its late arrival leaves open whether it drove the rally or chased it.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 13%
- Investor
- Investor 82%
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption62
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence58
Onchain spot demand for bitcoin stays negative despite a $2.39 billion ETF week
US spot bitcoin ETFs took in about $2.39 billion from September 21 to 25, yet CryptoQuant's 30-day estimate of spot demand was still negative on October 1. Fund subscriptions alone cannot show that the rally has buyers beyond the ETF channel.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption50
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence58
BlackRock's ETHA clients pulled all $202 million that left US Ethereum ETFs on October 6
BlackRock's iShares Ethereum Trust lost $201.89 million to redemptions on October 6, the whole of a $202 million net outflow from US spot Ethereum ETFs. The other Ethereum funds were roughly flat that day, so the selling came from one fund's clients while the claimed move into Bitcoin went unmeasured.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence50
Grayscale's ZCSH, the first US spot Zcash ETF, lost $93.56 million to outflows in one week, leaving $212.56 million of net inflows since its August launch. Its assets fell further, to about $751 million from a September peak as high as $979 million, with ZEC's price accounting for much of the drop.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 7%
- Operator
- Operator 20%
- Investor
- Investor 73%
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives60
- Confidence65
BlackRock's IBIT takes in more than the whole US spot Bitcoin ETF category in one session
BlackRock's IBIT took in $195.6 million on a day all US spot Bitcoin ETFs together netted $102.7 million, so the other funds sold a net $92.9 million. Over 30 days its $1.57 billion is just over half the category's $2.99 billion, so its rivals are still gathering money.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption70
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives35
- Confidence50
Nine sessions of buying since August 17 pulled $1.42 billion into US spot Ethereum funds, and $1.02 billion of it landed in one BlackRock product, which makes this a distribution story before it is a conviction story.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption50
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives35
- Confidence65
Bitcoin's spot funds gave back $201.9 million on Friday, four-fifths of it from two sponsors, while ether's kept taking money into a book sitting barely 7% above what its buyers have paid in. That is a thin cushion for a 10-day streak.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 8%
- Operator
- Operator 17%
- Investor
- Investor 75%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption70
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence68
Fidelity and BlackRock supplied about 97% of the $433 million that US spot bitcoin ETFs took in on September 18, and the week they rescued still finished at plus $6.2 million, worth about 77 bitcoin.
Reality
- Evidence74
- Adoption76
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives48
- Confidence70
September's $313.6M of spot Bitcoin ETF inflow rests on two trading sessions
September 3 brought $730.9 million and September 18 brought $433 million, so the other eleven sessions of the month netted a combined outflow near $850.3 million against a category holding about $102.5 billion.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption70
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives55
- Confidence45
Single-stock leverage carries 71.5% of Korean retail's September chip ETF selling
Individuals net sold 459.8 billion won across five semiconductor ETFs in the first eleven days of September and put 90.1 billion won into the gold, nuclear, battery and power funds credited with the rotation.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives62
- Confidence55
BlackRock's ETHA took 69 cents of every dollar that entered Ethereum ETFs on September 11
ETHA's $149m on September 11 was nearly 69% of the day's $216m sector inflow, but its share of August's $1.75bn was closer to 57%, and the $13bn cumulative figure is being measured against a sector asset total.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption61
- Hype gap+31
- Incentives56
- Confidence44
Active ETFs hold 13% of assets and take 42% of the flow. The fee line pays for it.
The numbers in the one write-up available do not agree with each other. Even the smallest of them says the marginal ETF dollar goes active now, and it arrives in a cheaper vehicle.
Reality
- Evidence22
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives62
- Confidence28