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Elliptic-curve cryptography

Public-key cryptography based on the difficulty of the discrete logarithm problem over elliptic curves, used for signatures and key exchange across the internet and in blockchain systems.

Current stories

investConfirmed2 publishers

Anthropic says Claude traced the P-256 seed to a Unix random number run in August 1997

Anthropic researchers say Claude traced the NIST P-256 curve seed to a random number generator started on Aug. 16, 1997, at 01:52:34 UTC. That narrows the backdoor case, though the seed was candidate 1,842 in that run, so someone kept one output out of many.

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+20
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence40
investConfirmed15 publishers

Justin Drake tells large crypto holders to move to fresh addresses before AI can break ECDSA

Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake says AI could break ECDSA in "months not years" and wants large holders on fresh addresses now. Custodians would bear most of the cost, and his evidence is a single AI math result.

Perspective Coverage

15 publishers
Builder
Builder 37%
Operator
Operator 34%
Investor
Investor 29%

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+50
Incentives45
Confidence62
scienceOne report1 publisher

Google certified a quantum attack on elliptic curve cryptography without disclosing the algorithm

The zero-knowledge proof in the March 2026 white paper turned out to certify false statements too, and Scientific American reports the algorithm Google was protecting stayed secret for only a few days.

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption30
Hype gap+30
Incentives50
Confidence58
securityOne report1 publisher

A new IACR estimate sizes the secp256k1 break at 1,450 logical qubits and 40 million Toffoli gates

The algorithm-level numbers are the part of the estimate that can be recompiled onto any fault-tolerant machine, and the headline 25.7 days on 19,397 physical qubits belongs to the trapped-ion architecture its own authors proposed.

Publishers:iacr.org

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+12
Incentives62
Confidence55
securityOne report1 publisher

IonQ's compiled secp256k1 break needs twice the qubits of its 2027 machine

IonQ's September 8 paper puts one secp256k1 key at just under 26 days on 20,000 physical qubits. The company's roadmap reaches 10,000 fault-tolerant qubits in 2027 and names no year for the larger machine.

Publishers:ionq.com

Reality

Evidence38
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+55
Incentives88
Confidence62