Marco Rubio announced US sanctions on the International Criminal Court itself on Friday, hours after ex-ICC judge Navi Pillay won the Nobel. US companies and individuals doing business with the court have six months to wind it down, Fortune reported, so the court now has a deadline for replacing its American banks and software.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 17%
- Operator
- Operator 51%
- Investor
- Investor 32%
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives60
- Confidence65
Washington opens direct talks with Myanmar's junta over scam centers targeting Americans
US officials have opened direct talks with Myanmar's junta aimed at shutting scam centers that target Americans, Reuters reported. Getting Myanmar's help now depends on bargaining with a coup leader who remains under US sanctions.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives65
- Confidence50
Washington said it would trade strikes for sanctions. Days later it went back to shooting. For anyone pricing a Gulf voyage, mine risk in the strait was paused last week, not eliminated, and the freight and insurance numbers will keep saying so.
Perspective Coverage
6 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 44%
- Investor
- Investor 51%
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives55
- Confidence58
Treasury's OFAC sanctioned 10 people over Ploutus ATM jackpotting, a scheme US officials tie to at least 1,500 attacks and $40.7 million in losses. Treasury calls the thefts a key revenue source for the Venezuelan criminal group Tren de Aragua.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 19%
- Operator
- Operator 56%
- Investor
- Investor 25%
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives55
- Confidence68
US blockade and sanctions more than triple some medicine prices in Iran
Some medicine prices in Iran have more than tripled as a US naval blockade and tougher sanctions squeeze the imported inputs its drugmakers rely on. US sanctions do not target medicine directly, but an Essex academic says banks and shippers often refuse the legal trade anyway.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence50
Under US Treasury sanctions, certificate authorities drop Russian and Iranian banks and state bodies
Russian banks moved to a state-run CA in August after GlobalSign mass-revoked its Russian customers' TLS certificates under May's US Treasury sanctions. Their customers now carry the problem, since Western browsers typically do not trust state-run CAs.
Reality
- Evidence35
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence35
A one-point Democratic lead on the economy, the first in about a decade, is now the binding constraint on how long Washington can squeeze Iranian crude.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives50
- Confidence55
Two sources told the South China Morning Post that sanctions on the whole court are prepared and imminent. Thirteen officials are already designated. The institutional version reaches anyone under US jurisdiction who banks the court.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption42
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives55
- Confidence52
Waiting for Cuba's one-party system to implode raises the price of what follows
Marco Rubio told Axios in August that Cuba's government could survive into 2028 or beyond. A Foreign Affairs account of Havana in June describes a state that is losing the capacity any transition would need.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives55
- Confidence47
The bloc's leaders adopted a Middle East paragraph that assigns responsibility to no country, and both Iran and the UAE signed it four months after their foreign ministers could not agree on any text at all.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives60
- Confidence55
Foreign Affairs argues Russia's advantage expires when global disorder subsides
The essay's case against the terminal-decline consensus rests on conditions it expects to reverse, which makes the planning question less about how strong Russia is than about how long fragmentation lasts.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence38