Topic
A prolonged period of below-average rainfall that depletes soil moisture, river flow, reservoir storage and groundwater versus long-term norms.
NOAA's December-to-February outlook tilts the odds toward a warmer northern tier and a wetter south, West Coast and Eastern Seaboard during a record El Niño. The maps are odds, so planners get a lean to start from and no totals to budget against.
Reality
World Meteorological Organization forecasts put El Niño's peak around December and give it a near-100% chance of lasting through February 2027. Its maps tilt regional odds toward heat, drought or flood, and WMO says they do not replace local forecasts.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishersReality
Lacy Cotter-Vardeman says roughly 90% of her Lubbock County dryland cotton died in the 2026 drought. So far, her farm is the only evidence that this was a new kind of loss, worse than the crop abandonment of 2011 and 2022.
Reality
South West cereal harvests fell at least 30% in the 2026 drought, according to the NFU in Wiltshire, against an 11% drop in UK wheat output. Dairy farms kept milk flowing by paying for feed and opening winter silage early, so the cost has so far landed on farm accounts.
Reality
Lac des Brenets on the Doubs fell 14.66 metres below normal on October 1 and is days from passing a low-water record set in 1906. A local historian says it now empties every couple of years, a pattern AFP's account supports only with residents' testimony.
Reality
The team that traced Morocco's record wet winter to a weakened Azores-Iceland pressure gradient says the Pacific will not settle what happens next, even with NOAA giving better than 90 percent odds on a very strong El Nino.
Reality