Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan wrote in his Oct. 14 memo that nearly every macro path ends with Bitcoin higher. A BIS paper from two days earlier models a fourth path, in which CryptoSlate's worked example has output up 10% and the consumer market down 1%.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 7%
- Operator
- Operator 24%
- Investor
- Investor 69%
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence60
Bitcoin dropped below $80,000 on Thursday after September PPI came in at 6.3% annually, a day after a hot CPI report. CoinGlass counted $948.22 million of liquidations, 90.6% of them longs, and Nexo says US spot ETF holders are back underwater.
Perspective Coverage
13 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 1%
- Operator
- Operator 35%
- Investor
- Investor 64%
Reality
- Evidence66
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence68
Without IBIT, U.S. bitcoin ETFs lost $11.73 million on the day they reported a $5.06 million inflow
U.S. bitcoin ETFs took in $5.06 million on Thursday while ether ETFs lost $60.22 million, according to Bitcoin News. BlackRock's IBIT alone added $16.79 million, and four sessions of flipping flows leave bitcoin funds about $146 million down.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $261.4 million on Oct. 14 and spot Ether ETFs a further $130 million, Farside Investors data shows. Both assets bled, but the Bitcoin outflow is a small slice of what those funds hold.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 22%
- Investor
- Investor 73%
Reality
- Evidence82
- Adoption80
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence78
Bitcoin's biggest ETF week in a year coincided with a 29-day Coinbase discount
US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in about $2.39 billion in their biggest week in a year while Coinbase priced Bitcoin below global venues for 29 straight days. The split means weekly fund flows were a poor guide to who was buying spot Bitcoin in September.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption50
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence40
A $1,700 liquidity band will decide Bitcoin's $80,000 support before the Fed does
Traders are waiting on Thursday's PPI and Friday's CPI, but the order book already brackets spot at 78,800 and 80,500, and with a quarter-point hike 58.4% priced there is less left for the Sept. 16 meeting to move.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives60
- Confidence50