Topic
The annual June 1 to Nov. 30 period when tropical storms and hurricanes form in the North Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.
Hurricane Isaias killed at least four people after landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast as a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds, Scientific American reported. Two meteorologists quoted there say a quiet season narrows where storms can form without softening the one that does.
Reality
Hurricane Isaias killed four people and cut power to at least 600,000 after reaching Florida with 105 mph winds. Its downgrade to a post-tropical cyclone leaves the flood threat in place, with NOAA warning of up to 10 inches of rain in Georgia and the Carolinas.
Perspective Coverage
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Hurricane Isaias, now Category 3, is due to hit the Florida Panhandle, Alabama and Mississippi as the latest first Atlantic hurricane since 1905. Vox credits the recent calm to El Nino, which forecasters expect to be historically bad this year.
Reality
Hurricane Isaias, the first of the 2026 Atlantic season, is heading for a Friday-night landfall on the northern US Gulf Coast. Evacuated rigs had taken about 63% of Gulf oil output offline by Thursday, AFP reported, in a season a strong El Niño has held back.
Reality
Tropical Storm Isaias should be a hurricane by Wednesday night and a Category 2 storm by Friday morning, the US National Hurricane Center estimates. Wind shear rising sharply in the last 24 hours before landfall may cap its strength at the coast.
Perspective Coverage
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AL92 has a 90% chance of becoming the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2026 within 48 hours, Gizmodo reports. Gulf Coast and Florida operations can start flood prep now and hold closure decisions until the track firms up.
Reality
El Niño kept the Atlantic free of hurricanes through September for the first time in reliable records by holding wind shear high over warm water. The mark could still fall if the National Hurricane Center upgrades Tropical Storm Fay in its post-season review.
Reality
El Niño's wind shear has helped hold the 2026 Atlantic to seven named storms and no hurricanes while the eastern Pacific logged eight hurricanes. Both oceans draw on tropical waves born over Africa, and this year those waves fared very differently on either side of Central America.
Reality