Skip to content

Topic

Annualized revenue run rate

A metric that projects full-year revenue from a recent shorter period, common among software and AI companies and distinct from audited annual revenue.

Current stories

investConfirmed3 publishers

OpenAI's $20 billion run-rate gap traces to an investor estimate made for comparison with Anthropic

OpenAI says its annualized revenue run rate is about $50 billion, not the $70 billion in earlier reports, a $20 billion gap that weighed on AI stocks. The higher figure was an estimate investors built to compare OpenAI with Anthropic, so the stocks moved on the gap between an outside estimate and OpenAI's own number.

Perspective Coverage

3 publishers
Builder
Builder 18%
Operator
Operator 20%
Investor
Investor 62%

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+20
Incentives60
Confidence58
leadershipConfirmed6 publishers

Cloud-partner counting rules open a $20bn gap in OpenAI's revenue forecast

OpenAI told investors its revenue this year will reach $50bn, about $20bn below the $70bn it signalled last month. The Guardian ties the gap to investors aligning the figure with Anthropic's counting method, so comparing the two labs' revenue starts with how each figure is built.

Perspective Coverage

8 publishers
Builder
Builder 7%
Operator
Operator 18%
Investor
Investor 75%

Reality

Evidence50
Adoption55
Hype gap+25
Incentives70
Confidence60
investConfirmed4 publishers

Nasdaq drops 1.25% after the FT puts OpenAI's revenue run rate $20 billion short

AI stocks sold off after the Financial Times put OpenAI's annualized revenue at about $50 billion, $20 billion below expectations. The rebound leans on a Bloomberg report that OpenAI expects $70 billion by year-end, a 40% climb in one quarter.

Perspective Coverage

4 publishers
Builder
Builder 6%
Operator
Operator 9%
Investor
Investor 85%

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption58
Hype gap+25
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence58
investConfirmed4 publishers

OpenAI's $1.4 trillion ask would mark up its biggest backers' stakes by about two thirds

OpenAI is in early talks to raise $30 billion at about $1.4 trillion, Bloomberg reported, 64% above its $852 billion valuation in March. The price lifts the stakes of SoftBank, Nvidia and Amazon on paper, while reports put the revenue run rate behind it anywhere from $40 billion to $70 billion.

Perspective Coverage

12 publishers
Builder
Builder 12%
Operator
Operator 14%
Investor
Investor 74%

Reality

Evidence50
Adoption50
Hype gap+25
Incentives70
Confidence60
investConfirmed4 publishers

OpenAI's near-$70 billion run rate barely clears the pace Anthropic hit in July

OpenAI's annualized revenue run rate is nearing $70 billion, up more than 70% since the quarter began, Axios reported. That is only about $5 billion above Anthropic's July rate, and Anthropic's figure has kept rising, so ranking the two labs has to wait for their prospectuses.

Perspective Coverage

5 publishers
Builder
Builder 15%
Operator
Operator 25%
Investor
Investor 60%

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption55
Hype gap+35
Incentives60
Confidence50
investConfirmed9 publishers

ChatGPT ads reach 40% of this year's revenue target in their first 200 days

OpenAI says its ad unit is annualizing at a billion dollars after fewer than 200 days of selling. That makes it a real media channel by any reasonable test. The country map is now what decides who gets to spend into it.

Perspective Coverage

9 publishers
Builder
Builder 12%
Operator
Operator 41%
Investor
Investor 47%

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption60
Hype gap+35
Incentives72
Confidence66