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2026 US midterm elections

US congressional elections held on November 3, 2026, deciding control of the House and Senate.

Current stories

investConfirmed6 publishers

Musk put 57% of his new midterm giving into a single Senate super PAC

Elon Musk gave more than $276 million to Republican groups since July, making him the biggest known donor of the 2026 midterms, CNBC and SCMP reported. CNBC put his known 2025-26 federal giving at roughly $366 million, 26% above the roughly $290 million he spent in 2024.

Perspective Coverage

7 publishers
Builder
Builder 13%
Operator
Operator 49%
Investor
Investor 38%

Reality

Evidence68
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+8
Incentives60
Confidence72
investConfirmed5 publishers

Trump touts Mesabi Metallics' $15 billion Iowa steel mill, citing 50% tariff, with production set for 2030

Mesabi Metallics plans a $15 billion Iowa mill making 10 million tons of steel a year from Minnesota ore, with first steel in 2030. It works out to $1,500 of capital per ton of yearly capacity, staked on Trump's case that the 50% tariff makes building US plants cheaper than paying it.

Perspective Coverage

6 publishers
Builder
Builder 15%
Operator
Operator 47%
Investor
Investor 38%

Reality

Evidence50
Adoption15
Hype gap+55
Incentives80
Confidence60
leadershipOne report1 publisher

Local officials report a 10-point jump in damaging polarization ahead of the midterms

CivicPulse found 41% of local officials report substantial negative effects from polarization, about 10 points above its three previous surveys. Cost of living ranks among the top drivers, and it is too early to tell whether the rise outlasts the midterms.

Publishers:nbcnews.com

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+15
Incentives40
Confidence45
investConfirmed6 publishers

Fairshake puts $1 million apiece behind six House incumbents expected to keep their seats

Fairshake, the crypto super PAC, is backing 32 House incumbents in November and putting about $1 million each behind three Democrats and three Republicans. That $6 million, a fifth of what it is spending against Sherrod Brown, goes mostly to members of the committees that handle crypto bills.

Perspective Coverage

6 publishers
Builder
Builder 10%
Operator
Operator 55%
Investor
Investor 35%

Reality

Evidence68
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+30
Incentives72
Confidence65
leadershipOne report1 publisher

Trump's $54 billion Alaska gas announcement still needs Seoul's commercial-viability sign-off

Trump said South Korea plans to invest about $54 billion in Alaska's gas pipeline, but President Lee Jae Myung's party says it is not finalized. Seoul still has to test the project's commercial viability, so for now the figure is an announcement made weeks before a close Alaska Senate race.

Publishers:abcnews.com

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+60
Incentives75
Confidence55
scienceOne report1 publisher

68% of rural MAHA supporters say Trump's policies left local health unchanged or worse

AP-KFF polling of over 2,000 rural voters finds about 8 in 10, including 68% of MAHA backers, say Trump's policies hurt or did nothing for local health. Two-thirds of those backers call a candidate's MAHA support extremely or very important to their vote, so the gap reaches November's ballot.

Publishers:statnews.com

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+12
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence60
leadershipOne report1 publisher

Republican candidates test distance from Trump six weeks out from the midterms

Six Republicans have now broken with the president in public over immigration, the Iran war and a plan to cut beef tariffs. Two of the six put the break on the record with a vote. Vox reports his approval is reaching new lows.

Publishers:vox.com

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+15
Incentives70
Confidence55
investConfirmed6 publishers

A Republican donor calls Trump's $5,000 midterm promise a 'bread and circus bribe'

Trump promised $5,000 to each American adult if his party keeps its congressional majorities, and Fortune reports that such a proposal could cost more than $1 trillion. No financing was attached to it.

Perspective Coverage

6 publishers
Builder
Builder 5%
Operator
Operator 48%
Investor
Investor 47%

Reality

Evidence80
Adoption5
Hype gap+60
Incentives85
Confidence70
investConfirmed3 publishers

Johnson answers Trump's $5,000 dividend with a promise to find consensus

Trump promised American adults $5,000 each if Republicans hold Congress, a payout put near $1.3 trillion, and the two Republican leaders who would have to legislate it have both declined to promise it.

Perspective Coverage

3 publishers
Builder
Builder 6%
Operator
Operator 47%
Investor
Investor 47%

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+65
Incentives72
Confidence60
investConfirmed5 publishers

Fairshake commits a quarter of its remaining cash to keeping Sherrod Brown out of the Senate

The crypto super PAC is spending $30 million in Ohio over six weeks, about a quarter of the $120.4 million it and its affiliates reported on September 20. The target is a Senate Banking gavel that Democratic caucus rules do not automatically restore.

Perspective Coverage

5 publishers
Builder
Builder 12%
Operator
Operator 50%
Investor
Investor 38%

Reality

Evidence60
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+20
Incentives60
Confidence62