Copernicus holds off calling El Niño the strongest after a record 29.70C reading in Nino3.4
Copernicus said Nino3.4 sea surface temperatures hit an all-time high of 29.70C in September, above the 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2015/16 peaks. Its newer index, which adjusts for warming of the tropical oceans, does not yet put the event above those three, so the record and the ranking come apart.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 6%
- Operator
- Operator 58%
- Investor
- Investor 36%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence70
El Niño tops 2015 on a trend-adjusted index whose data starts in 2008
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology says weekly average sea-surface temperatures in the central Pacific are at a record weeks before El Niño's December peak. Planners in exposed sectors still have 1997-98 and 2015-16 as their closest guide, because the record describes ocean heat and no source yet counts this year's damage.
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence62
Haze from Indonesian fires closed Malaysian schools while El Niño was still strengthening
Malaysia closed schools in several regions last week because of haze from Indonesian fires, a phys.org roundup of El Niño impacts reports. The WMO says El Niño will keep intensifying until a December peak. Several damage reports also name causes besides the weather cycle.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
World Meteorological Organization forecasts put El Niño's peak around December and give it a near-100% chance of lasting through February 2027. Its maps tilt regional odds toward heat, drought or flood, and WMO says they do not replace local forecasts.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 28%
- Operator
- Operator 52%
- Investor
- Investor 20%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence68
buildConfirmed2 publishers The San Francisco startup wants drone fleets to thin clouds over solar farms. The uplift range comes from its own model, the first large flight is targeted for 2027, and standard FAA rules forbid the profile.
Reality
- Evidence22
- Adoption2
- Hype gap+70
- Incentives65
- Confidence55
Three years of glacier loss equal a third of the world's annual freshwater withdrawals
Freshwater storage has been declining for ten years. The WMO's new report locates the loss in the slow reserves, groundwater and glaciers, that used to absorb bad years.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives40
- Confidence68
The Met Office's Julian Heming credits this year's record El Nino for the ocean heat beneath the storm. Rapid intensification happens several times a year worldwide, and the two published accounts differ on Polo's peak winds.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 45%
- Operator
- Operator 47%
- Investor
- Investor 8%
Reality
- Evidence74
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence70
NOAA gives 75% odds that this El Nino outranks every event back to 1950
The eastern Pacific is running 2.1 C above average on weekly NOAA data, past the 2 C mark for a super event. The official strength category comes from three-month averages, and the regional outlook comes with a caveat attached.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives40
- Confidence55
The World Meteorological Organization's new bulletin puts the Antarctic hole below its long-term average for a second year running, and the researchers reading the same data disagree about whether the recovery is on schedule.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives65
- Confidence58
Richer countries get more accurate weather forecasts, 35 years of ECMWF data show
Two researchers scored 35 years of ECMWF forecasts against the observed weather and found accuracy rises with national income at every lead time out to a week. The reasons are mostly geographic and only partly a matter of spending.
Reality
- Evidence64
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives58
- Confidence62
A Guangxi snakebite death fits five defensible slots in the disaster loss record
Lakshman Srikanth and David Petley follow one fatality through the layers of interpretation that sit between a death and a database row, which is why the same typhoon can honestly carry a toll of 39 and a toll of 159 six weeks apart.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption22
- Hype gap−8
- Incentives30
- Confidence60
WMO puts near-100% odds on El Nino lasting through February 2027
For the first time, a WMO update on El Nino carries almost no hedge about the tropical Pacific over the next two seasons. The harder question, what any given basin actually gets, sits in a second document.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption25
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives65
- Confidence58
WMO puts this El Nino on course for the strongest Pacific anomaly in its 40-year record
The forecast peak of 3.6C sits well past the line where the WMO's own scale stops resolving anything, and because ocean heat vents slowly, the year that inherits the temperature is 2027 rather than 2026.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption22
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives62
- Confidence52
Met Office puts the Pacific 3C above normal, and puts 2027 into next year's budget
The forecast signal is stronger than anything in the record since 1950. The observation underneath it is 1.4C, and that gap is the part worth watching.
Reality
- Evidence56
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives44
- Confidence47