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Independent US financial and economic commentary site published by Wolf Richter, covering macro data, housing, credit and markets.
Treasury sold $121 billion of 3-, 10- and 30-year debt this week at the highest auction yields in over 20 years, including 5.30% on the 10-year. Buyers took all of it and the 10-year eased to 5.24% by Friday, so the week sets a clearing level for long debt that the next auctions will test.
Reality
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac grew multifamily loans 8.2% in the year to the second quarter, nearly triple the 2.9% pace of banks' commercial real estate books. That growth is apartment debt, so Wolf Street's figures do not show office losses from the low-rate years moving to taxpayers.
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ECB holdings of QE bonds and loans fell by 95 billion euros in the third quarter, leaving them 53% below their mid-2022 peak. Most of that retreat is repaid loans, so the central bank still owns two-thirds of its peak bond book as euro-area yields rise.
Reality
Mortgage Bankers Association data put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.49%, its highest since November 2023, with purchase applications down 15% on the year. Buyers are retreating at current prices, and homeowners who want cash have moved to home-equity lines.
Reality
Bank of Japan's government bond holdings fell 14.3 trillion yen last quarter, 92% of a 15.5 trillion yen drop that left assets 17.4% below their 2024 peak. With loan repayments stalled, its tightening now comes almost entirely from bonds maturing off the books.
Reality
New York State's median home listing price fell 6.8% from a year earlier to $605,000 in September, Wolf Richter of Wolf Street reported. New York asks are now falling about twice as fast as Florida's, the steepest annual drop of the four states in his report.
Reality
US data-center construction spending rose 73% in a year to an $85 billion annual rate, Census Bureau figures for August show. Factory construction still runs at nearly twice that rate, and builders are paying about a tenth more for materials and services than a year ago.
Reality
Ten-year Treasury yields closed the week at 5.28% after buyers who drove them down to 5.15% on Friday's jobs headlines gave the move back by afternoon. One afternoon's reversal is thin evidence that yields above 5% will hold, though the October 2023 spike never got that reaction.
Reality
Construction added 109,000 jobs in a year, growing 2.4 times as fast as professional and business services in BLS payrolls released October 2. Wolf Richter credits data centers, factories and power plants, so hiring is following capital spending into physical projects.
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FHFA data compiled by Wolf Street put 49.1% of US mortgages below 4% in the second quarter, while market rates run above 7%. With life-event selling nearly halted, the supply of existing homes stays thin until mortgage rates fall.
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US consumer spending rose 6.1% in the year to August before inflation and 2.6% after it, Bureau of Economic Analysis data show. Prices rose faster in August alone than over the year, so the report argues for a slower path of rate cuts.
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US workers quit 3.07 million jobs in August, 23,000 fewer than in July, Bureau of Labor Statistics JOLTS data show. Fewer resignations mean fewer seats to refill, but the case for easing pay pressure still rests on the 2021-22 experience.
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Hedge funds in the Treasury basis trade borrowed $3.0 trillion in repo as of July 2025, New York Fed data show, roughly what money market funds lend. Dealers stand between the two, so a pullback in money-fund cash would reach the basis traders through dealer balance sheets.
Reality
US manufacturers booked $88 billion of core capital goods orders in August, up 14.1% from a year earlier, according to Census Bureau data. Wolf Richter credits the AI build-out, but orders can sit in backlog for months, longer if reported turbine-blade shortages persist.
Reality
Record diesel crack spreads on top of expensive crude have taken the US pump price to an all-time high. Senator Chuck Grassley wants President Trump to ban the exports, which are also at a record.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishersReality
The 10-year broke a 5% level it had bounced against for two weeks, and the curve from two to thirty years now sits between 4.91% and 5.39%. A Treasury buyback offer the same morning did not slow it.
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Payrolls in both sectors are back at their 2019 levels. The two AI companies headquartered in San Francisco are asking markets for roughly $11 million for every job left in the sectors where their hiring lands.
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The 3-year Treasury closed Friday at 4.86%, up 144 basis points since the end of February, while the 10-year has found just enough buying to stall at 5.01%. Fifteen basis points now separate the two.
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Wolf Richter counts 34 bigger markets where mid-tier condo prices sit 15% to 34% below peaks mostly set in mid-2022, and six that are back under their 2006 highs. In San Francisco, houses are re-exploding while condos stay 7% under peak.
Reality
Retail sales rose 1.2% in August to $773 billion, and 1.1% without gas stations. Part of that monthly jump refills a July hole left by Amazon Prime Day moving to June, so the 4.9% ex-gasoline annual rate carries the case.
Reality
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