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Founder and editor of Wolf Street, a financial news and commentary site known for data-driven analysis of US economic indicators, markets, and monetary policy.
Treasury sold $121 billion of 3-, 10- and 30-year debt this week at the highest auction yields in over 20 years, including 5.30% on the 10-year. Buyers took all of it and the 10-year eased to 5.24% by Friday, so the week sets a clearing level for long debt that the next auctions will test.
Reality
Treasury sold $39 billion of 10-year notes at a 5.30% yield, its highest auction yield since November 2000. Bidders showed up in size, so the cost lands on earlier buyers of the same notes and on a Treasury that raised about $37 billion for $39 billion of debt.
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Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac grew multifamily loans 8.2% in the year to the second quarter, nearly triple the 2.9% pace of banks' commercial real estate books. That growth is apartment debt, so Wolf Street's figures do not show office losses from the low-rate years moving to taxpayers.
Reality
ECB holdings of QE bonds and loans fell by 95 billion euros in the third quarter, leaving them 53% below their mid-2022 peak. Most of that retreat is repaid loans, so the central bank still owns two-thirds of its peak bond book as euro-area yields rise.
Reality
Yields on 1- to 7-year Treasuries moved as much as 26 basis points in four days, and the short end is now priced for hikes. That changes the base case for anyone financing 2026.
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Mortgage Bankers Association data put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.49%, its highest since November 2023, with purchase applications down 15% on the year. Buyers are retreating at current prices, and homeowners who want cash have moved to home-equity lines.
Reality
Bank of Japan's government bond holdings fell 14.3 trillion yen last quarter, 92% of a 15.5 trillion yen drop that left assets 17.4% below their 2024 peak. With loan repayments stalled, its tightening now comes almost entirely from bonds maturing off the books.
Reality
New York State's median home listing price fell 6.8% from a year earlier to $605,000 in September, Wolf Richter of Wolf Street reported. New York asks are now falling about twice as fast as Florida's, the steepest annual drop of the four states in his report.
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US data-center construction spending rose 73% in a year to an $85 billion annual rate, Census Bureau figures for August show. Factory construction still runs at nearly twice that rate, and builders are paying about a tenth more for materials and services than a year ago.
Reality
Blackstone and Hudson Pacific got 14 more months at 4.435% on the $1.1 billion Hollywood loan behind September's jump in office CMBS delinquency to 12.2%. Bondholders keep a below-market coupon while Netflix and 20th Century Fox decide on leases covering 30% of the space.
Reality
Ten-year Treasury yields closed the week at 5.28% after buyers who drove them down to 5.15% on Friday's jobs headlines gave the move back by afternoon. One afternoon's reversal is thin evidence that yields above 5% will hold, though the October 2023 spike never got that reaction.
Reality
Construction added 109,000 jobs in a year, growing 2.4 times as fast as professional and business services in BLS payrolls released October 2. Wolf Richter credits data centers, factories and power plants, so hiring is following capital spending into physical projects.
Reality
FHFA data compiled by Wolf Street put 49.1% of US mortgages below 4% in the second quarter, while market rates run above 7%. With life-event selling nearly halted, the supply of existing homes stays thin until mortgage rates fall.
Reality
US consumer spending rose 6.1% in the year to August before inflation and 2.6% after it, Bureau of Economic Analysis data show. Prices rose faster in August alone than over the year, so the report argues for a slower path of rate cuts.
Reality
US workers quit 3.07 million jobs in August, 23,000 fewer than in July, Bureau of Labor Statistics JOLTS data show. Fewer resignations mean fewer seats to refill, but the case for easing pay pressure still rests on the 2021-22 experience.
Reality
Hedge funds in the Treasury basis trade borrowed $3.0 trillion in repo as of July 2025, New York Fed data show, roughly what money market funds lend. Dealers stand between the two, so a pullback in money-fund cash would reach the basis traders through dealer balance sheets.
Reality
Core services and a sudden run-up in computer prices are holding the Fed's preferred gauge 1.35 points above target. Futures put the September choice at hold or hike.
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US manufacturers booked $88 billion of core capital goods orders in August, up 14.1% from a year earlier, according to Census Bureau data. Wolf Richter credits the AI build-out, but orders can sit in backlog for months, longer if reported turbine-blade shortages persist.
Reality
US existing-home sales fell 2 per cent in August to a 3.98 million annual pace while listings rose to 1.62 million homes, the most since November 2019, and the ratio of the two is about 4.9 months of supply.
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3 publishersReality
Brent near $108 and futures pricing a 92.3% chance of a Fed hike took the 10-year to 5.014% intraday. Capital Economics says the United States is not in a fiscal crisis yet because nominal growth still beats debt service.
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