FCA's 2026 report already classes financial prediction markets as banned retail binary options
FCA has held talks with prediction-market operators as Polymarket and Kalshi explore UK entry, the Financial Times reported. Its 2026 perimeter report classed the financial products it examined as binary options, banned for retail clients since 2019.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap−10
- Incentives45
- Confidence60
An account freezing order under the Proceeds of Crime Act attaches to the money wherever it sits, which is why a crypto sponsor's opening instalment of £10,024,041.33 has been immobilised since January.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 17%
- Operator
- Operator 44%
- Investor
- Investor 39%
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives50
- Confidence62
Polymarket lobbies EU and UK regulators to reclassify its bets as investment services
Polymarket has approached the European Commission, ESMA and the FCA's chief executive to be regulated under MiFID, the Financial Times reports. Spain blocked it in May and France followed in July.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives72
- Confidence45
Polymarket lobbies Brussels and London to have its contracts treated as derivatives
Polymarket wants ESMA and the FCA to supervise its event contracts as financial instruments instead of gambling products. The MiFID label it is asking for comes with the EU's retail binary-options restrictions attached.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption18
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives72
- Confidence42
Swansea audit of all 624 UK-licensed gambling sites puts 86% in breach of GDPR
Because the Swansea team crawled every licensed casino and betting site on the register, the 86% breach figure counts the whole industry. A companion experiment put six banner designs in front of 615 UK online gamblers.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption82
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives48
- Confidence63