GAO finds none of 24 federal agencies has done all three post-quantum basics
None of 24 federal agencies reviewed by the US GAO has fully completed all three post-quantum basics of inventory, funding and testing. Europol's guidance a day later puts the risk on data harvested now and decrypted whenever a capable quantum computer appears.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption15
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence52
Forescout found post-quantum-capable SSH on 6% of IoMT and 16% of medical OT devices in a 2.5 million-device study of over 50 healthcare organizations. With long device lifecycles and few upgrade paths, hospitals are left planning around segmentation.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption10
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence58
buildOne report1 publisher Route 53 health checks that need TLS 1.2 pulled traffic from a TLS 1.3-only region
Disabling TLS 1.2 on public ingress failed Route 53 HTTPS health checks and cut traffic to a healthy region, according to an InfoQ case study. The fault sat in the control plane that decides where traffic goes, where no in-region dashboard could see it.
Reality
- Evidence35
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence40
buildOne report1 publisher Per-origin probing cut Cloudflare's origin handshake retries from 52% to 3.7%
Cloudflare reports origin handshake retries falling by a factor of fourteen, though its own 30% miss rate cannot produce a 52% baseline. What does transfer is post-quantum key agreement arriving with nobody configuring it.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption60
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives70
- Confidence60
buildOne report1 publisher Cloudflare swapped a years-old TLS guess for a daily probe of every origin
Probing each origin for its preferred key agreement group dropped HelloRetryRequests on scanned origins from about 52% to 3.7% and took more than 150 ms off p90 handshakes, after the price of the old classical-first default had climbed 25-fold since 2023.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption68
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives72
- Confidence63
buildOne report1 publisher TLS 1.3 stops Mishra's Pixel capture short of the payloads his page lists
Praveen Kumar Mishra puts a locked Pixel 8 at 348.4 outbound requests an hour across 42 Alphabet endpoints. His firewall recorded destinations and byte counts, and the SIM hashes and facial-recognition indices he describes sit outside what that capture can show.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+55
- Incentives55
- Confidence62
buildOne report1 publisher HTTP/2 gives a lossy mobile link one TCP connection to stall instead of six
A dev.to guide walks Laravel apps from HTTP/1.1 to HTTP/3 on nginx, and the part worth reading twice is its admission that the middle step can hurt, because one connection carrying 40 streams stalls on one lost packet.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption75
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives50
- Confidence66
buildOne report1 publisher Polling 100,000 clients at 1 Hz spends 819 Mbps on request headers before any payload
A dev.to post works the header-overhead sum for short polling and lands on 102.4 MB/s of pure framing metadata. The same sum separates polling from a held-open connection, and the three protocols in its title all sit on the same side of it.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives20
- Confidence50
buildOne report1 publisher Upgrading to JDK 27 switches TLS 1.3 handshakes to hybrid post-quantum key exchange
Oracle's JDK 27 release notes put hybrid post-quantum key exchange for TLS 1.3 into the default configuration. The migration now belongs to whoever schedules the runtime upgrade.
Publishers:inside.java
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption12
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives80
- Confidence55
buildConfirmed4 publishers JEP 527's hybrid key exchange landed as a stable feature on September 15, and the same JDK makes G1 the collector on small machines and cuts every object header to 64 bits. Serial is still one flag away.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 51%
- Operator
- Operator 36%
- Investor
- Investor 13%
Reality
- Evidence74
- Adoption33
- Hype gap+50
- Incentives60
- Confidence72
Oracle's post-quantum backport reaches JDK 8 and 11 last, in the second half of 2027
Java 27 shipped ML-KEM hybrid key exchange for TLS 1.3 on September 15. Oracle's published plan gives it to JDK 25 in October and to JDK 8 and 11 in the second half of 2027, and The Futurum Group's Mitch Ashley says that order inverts the risk.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives65
- Confidence50
buildOne report1 publisher A fifteen-line listener reads your destination out of TLS without decrypting a byte
A developer dumped the ClientHello that openssl sends and found the requested hostname in plain ASCII inside the server_name extension. A listener holding no private key read it back off the wire, TLS 1.3 included.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives18
- Confidence68
buildOne report1 publisher Java 27 makes G1 the collector on the 1-CPU container that used to get Serial
The non-LTS release is mostly two years of JDK 25 experiments switched on by default, and the flipped defaults change memory and handshake behaviour in small containers rather than adding syntax anyone will write.
Reality
- Evidence56
- Adoption24
- Hype gap−14
- Incentives58
- Confidence52
IETF Publishes Encrypted Client Hello as a Standard to Encrypt SNI, With Caveats
RFC 9849 encrypts the ClientHello, so the domain field that SNI allowlists and passive TLS logs depend on stops appearing on the wire. In return, operators inherit a key rotation duty; the spec sets no fixed interval.
Publishers:rfc-editor.org
Reality
- Evidence88
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap−10
- Incentives20
- Confidence74
Red Hat counted 572 quantum-vulnerable spots in OpenStack. The obstacle is OpenStack's own pins.
Hardcoded algorithms and forced TLS 1.2 across 90-plus repositories stop OpenStack inheriting post-quantum crypto the platform already ships. Keystone's token signing is one hardcoded line.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption32
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives72
- Confidence52
buildOne report1 publisher JDK 27's nine JEPs are frozen, and two of them change your defaults
The feature list is fixed until the September 15 ship date. Five items are previews you have to ask for; two are HotSpot defaults that apply whether you read the notes or not.
Reality
- Evidence71
- Adoption18
- Hype gap+9
- Incentives34
- Confidence66
buildOne report1 publisher Hybrid Post-Quantum TLS: Same Protocol, a 1,216-Byte Key Share
X25519MLKEM768 leaves the TLS application surface alone and moves the cost into handshake bytes. The work now is knowing which group each connection actually negotiated.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption42
- Hype gap−12
- Incentives28
- Confidence55