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Company

TD Cowen

TD Cowen is an investment bank and research firm, part of TD Securities, providing equity research, trading, and advisory services.

Known aliases

  • TD Cowen Washington Research Group

Current stories

investOne report1 publisher

SpaceX's reported $8 billion spectrum purchase is under a tenth of TD Cowen's network estimate

SpaceX's Grain spectrum purchase, put at nearly $8 billion by a source, is under a tenth of the more than $80 billion TD Cowen says a mobile network would cost. The build would draw on the same cash as Starship, AI infrastructure and the Terafab chip factory.

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap−10
Incentives60
Confidence55
investOne report1 publisher

TD Cowen warns that the SEC and CFTC rules issued after the CLARITY vote are the easiest kind to rescind

The SEC unveiled a five-year exemption for stock tokens two days after the Senate's failed CLARITY cloture vote. TD Cowen cautions that agency rules like it are the easiest to rescind, so firms building on it carry that risk.

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption20
Hype gap−10
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence50
investOne report1 publisher

TD Cowen sees a realistic risk that the CFTC's leveraged crypto rules unravel before the 2028 election

TD Cowen's Jaret Seiberg says the CFTC's leveraged retail crypto rules may not be final until early 2028, colliding with the election cycle. A new administration could revise or drop them, and a rushed schedule invites a procedural court challenge.

Reality

Evidence50
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap−10
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence50
leadershipConfirmed4 publishers

Starbucks rules out buying Chipotle days after the FT reported it had hired advisers

Starbucks said it is not buying Chipotle, days after the Financial Times reported it had hired advisers to work on a takeover proposal. Chipotle, valued at $47 billion, did not immediately respond, and Starbucks reports Q4 results with FY27 guidance later this month.

Perspective Coverage

4 publishers
Builder
Builder 4%
Operator
Operator 31%
Investor
Investor 65%

Reality

Evidence66
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+15
Incentives40
Confidence72
investConfirmed6 publishers

CFTC carves casino gambling out of its swap definition to claim event contracts for itself

Mike Selig's CFTC put one rule into force Friday and proposed another defining event contracts as swaps under its sole oversight, with 30 days for comment. States have won two of three federal appellate rulings so far, and the Supreme Court has been asked to settle the fight.

Perspective Coverage

6 publishers
Builder
Builder 12%
Operator
Operator 51%
Investor
Investor 37%

Reality

Evidence74
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+15
Incentives70
Confidence70
investConfirmed3 publishers

Strategy repurchases at 29 percent above the price its liquidity sales fetched

Strive's 1,800 coins and Strategy's 4,603 put balance-sheet demand back on the tape, though the pioneer still holds 2,313 fewer bitcoin than it did in June and the newer bid is funded by a preferred paying 13 percent.

Perspective Coverage

3 publishers
Builder
Builder 5%
Operator
Operator 27%
Investor
Investor 68%

Reality

Evidence70
Adoption55
Hype gap+20
Incentives65
Confidence70
investConfirmed3 publishers

Starbucks weighs a bid for the $41 billion Chipotle that Brian Niccol left behind

Starbucks has explored a bid for Chipotle, the $41 billion chain its CEO Brian Niccol ran for six years, the Financial Times reported. Starbucks shares fell on the report, Quartz said, a reaction from the holders who would pay for the largest deal the restaurant industry has seen.

Perspective Coverage

6 publishers
Builder
Builder 6%
Operator
Operator 34%
Investor
Investor 60%

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+25
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence50
investConfirmed2 publishers

Skydance plans one HBO Max and Paramount+ service under roughly $80 billion of debt

Skydance's David Ellison plans to merge Paramount+ and HBO Max, a pairing he puts at over 200 million subscribers, now that the Warner Bros. deal has closed. The company says it carries roughly $80 billion of debt, so that scale has to turn into cash.

Publishers:cnbc.com qz.com techdirt.com

Perspective Coverage

3 publishers
Builder
Builder 7%
Operator
Operator 43%
Investor
Investor 50%

Reality

Evidence50
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+30
Incentives70
Confidence55
investConfirmed7 publishers

Crypto's rulebook moves to the agencies after the Senate falls 11 short

The Senate blocked the Clarity Act 49-50 on Tuesday. By Thursday the SEC had published a tokenized-stock exemption its chairman tied to that defeat, on terms a future chairman can withdraw without a vote.

Perspective Coverage

7 publishers
Builder
Builder 21%
Operator
Operator 40%
Investor
Investor 39%

Reality

Evidence70
Adoption25
Hype gap+20
Incentives60
Confidence65
investConfirmed2 publishers

Anthropic's $15 billion-a-year SpaceX compute deal can end on 90 days' notice from either side

Anthropic pays SpaceX $1.25 billion a month for compute through May 2029 on terms either side can end with 90 days' notice. That notice period covers about $3.75 billion of the roughly $45 billion the contract is worth if it runs to term.

Perspective Coverage

3 publishers
Builder
Builder 15%
Operator
Operator 23%
Investor
Investor 62%

Reality

Evidence60
Adoption72
Hype gap+30
Incentives65
Confidence58
investOne report1 publisher

Bowman splits Fed bank supervision into five state-line regions, each with one accountable leader

Fed supervision chief Michelle Bowman is scrapping dozens of internal committees and regrouping bank oversight into five regions drawn on state lines. A parallel plan to raise asset thresholds by as much as 50%, on TD Cowen's estimate, will decide more of what banks pay for supervision.

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+20
Incentives45
Confidence50
investOne report1 publisher

Saylor Argues Digital Credit Issuers Strengthen Each Other as Smarter Web Advances MORE Preferred Share

Smarter Web Company plans to raise £15 million to £25 million with MORE, the first preferred share from a UK corporate Bitcoin holder, pending FCA approval. How much it raises, and at what dividend, is an early check on Michael Saylor's claim that Bitcoin-backed credit issuers enlarge each other's market.

Reality

Evidence40
Adoption15
Hype gap+45
Incentives70
Confidence40
investOne report1 publisher

Kansas bankers pay to attack Republican Sen. Roger Marshall over swipe fees

Kansas bankers put about $250,000 into a roughly $1 million ad buy against Republican Sen. Roger Marshall over his swipe-fee bill. With co-lead Dick Durbin retiring, a Marshall loss would leave the Credit Card Competition Act without either lead Senate sponsor.

Reality

Evidence50
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+15
Incentives65
Confidence50
investOne report1 publisher

Mastercard recruits twelve wallets to turn stored balances into billable credentials

Mastercard's Wallet Pay lets twelve wallets issue their own card programs and keeps their stored balances travelling as Mastercard credentials. Half of those wallets came to it through Alipay+.

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption25
Hype gap+20
Incentives80
Confidence50
investOne report1 publisher

ServiceTitan guides third-quarter revenue below the quarter that just beat the Street

ServiceTitan beat on revenue and EPS and nudged its full-year guide up by $4m. The stock fell 30% the next session, because the back half of fiscal 2027 is planned at roughly 15% growth against 25% a year ago.

Publishers:saastr.com

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption55
Hype gap+6
Incentives56
Confidence58
buildOne report1 publisher

Microsoft's reported 38 GW fleet implies thirteen Pecos-scale campuses by 2032

A reported target of 38 gigawatts by 2032 has Microsoft roughly tripling its data-center footprint and taking AI capacity past 12 gigawatts. The composition ratio is the part of it a capacity plan can use.

Publishers:runtimewire.com

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption60
Hype gap+20
Incentives60
Confidence55
investOne report1 publisher

Strive's 13% preferred funds a ninth straight day of buying at 29% of last week's pace

Nine days of purchases paid for by a security that disburses cash every business day is a demand read on the preferred rather than on bitcoin. The coins Strive bought last week at $79,431 are marked at $77,100.

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption61
Hype gap+24
Incentives72
Confidence54
investOne report1 publisher

Valley National pays $247M for a cheaper deposit book and ends its CRE retreat

Providence Financial is worth about 2.4% of Valley's balance sheet, so scale is not the point. The companies say the funding cost gap between them is more than 50%.

Reality

Evidence64
Adoption38
Hype gap+18
Incentives72
Confidence55