Person
Co-founder and CEO of Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange, which he started with Luana Lopes Lara in 2018.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said on October 14 that public trade data makes insider trading easy to catch, citing a case that drew about 100 complaints. The CFTC order against Santos was for manipulation, and New Jersey has asked the Supreme Court to review state authority over the contracts.
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Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour says state policing would drive US prediction markets offshore, though two of three appeals courts have sided with states. Sports slid from 95% of Kalshi's revenue to about two-thirds, a share change that cannot show how much volume left.
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NEXTPredict paid $12,000 on Kalshi for about $3 million of cover if over half of JFK's flights are canceled on October 21. Susquehanna took the other side in what the parties call the first conference hedged on a prediction market.
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Kalshi is in advanced talks to raise about $1 billion at a $40 billion valuation, 3.6 times the $11 billion it was worth in December 2025. Most of the volume behind that price comes from sports contracts, so the new investors are betting that regulators and courts keep allowing them.
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JPMorgan ended Polymarket's primary banking relationship over regulatory risk in October, around the time ICE put an initial $1 billion in at a roughly $8 billion valuation.
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Combined Kalshi and Polymarket volume reached $53 billion in July, an annual pace above Bernstein's forecast for all of 2026, and Senate Banking Democrats say contracts tied to corporate metrics belong to the SEC.
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A King County judge sorted Kalshi's markets into two piles: sports and politics must be geofenced by September 2, while commodities, climate, economics and finance stay live.
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