Indonesian equities fall the most since 1998 after MSCI outlines plans to remove them from key indexes
Indonesian equities suffered their biggest drop since 1998 on Friday after MSCI said the market no longer merited emerging market status. Turkey's main index also fell more than 3% after an MSCI freeze, while European stocks rose as the tech selloff eased.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap
- Not scored
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence58
Borrowing costs outweigh strong chip earnings as French debt stress spreads
Global shares slid on Thursday as French debt strain spread to Italian and Greek bonds and Europe's banks, taking the STOXX 600 to its lowest since June. Reports that Broadcom and SpaceX want billions in debt to buy AI chips put more corporate borrowers in line for the same limited funding.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives55
- Confidence50
UK 30-year gilt yields hit their highest level since 1998 this week as a global bond sell-off deepened. Economists cited by the Guardian think about half of the £24bn fiscal buffer has already gone before John Healey's first budget on 28 October.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence65
European stocks and the euro slide back toward last week's lows with Brent at $101.83
Europe's STOXX 600 fell 1.02% and the euro 0.62% on Wednesday as Brent rose to $101.83 and France's bond spread widened. Both still sit above last week's lows, the levels a Europe-exposed portfolio has to watch as the fourth quarter starts.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence68
Friday's bond rally widened France's premium over German debt to 149 basis points
France's 10-year premium over Germany reached 149 basis points on Friday, the widest since 2012, on a day euro-area bonds rallied. Investors favored Bunds even as markets steadied, pricing France and Italy on their own fiscal risk.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap−5
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence50