Person
Professor of finance and real estate at Columbia University whose research covers commercial property values, mortgage credit and urban economics.
Revenue from coding agents grew faster than hyperscaler data center spending, according to the Noahpinion blog, even as the companies began to borrow. The post says the new debt raises the stakes if that growth slows.
Reality
Nokia CEO Justin Hotard says customers would build AI data centers twice as fast without shortages of memory chips and power. Nokia's own order book supports his point about the pace of building, while leaving open whether demand for AI services will repay the spending.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishersReality
Anthropic plans to spend $518 billion, more than 100 times its 2025 revenue, according to the IPO prospectus seen by Reuters. Investors in the listing are underwriting a payoff that JP Morgan says has yet to show up as broad productivity gains in the US.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishersReality
Treasury yields have held around 5% at nearly every maturity, and 53% of 173 specialists Bloomberg polled expect the 30-year to top 6% this year. Plans that assume cheaper money soon now depend on an oil shock fading faster than AI and deficit borrowing.
Perspective Coverage
8 publishersReality
Columbia's Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh estimates the US AI build at $10.3 trillion through 2032, needing $3.7 trillion a year in revenue to pay off. The bar is 37 times the roughly $100 billion OpenAI and Anthropic book today, a gap the model gives about seven years to close.
Reality
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh's Brookings paper projects $10.3 trillion in US AI investment through 2032, 3.63% of GDP a year against the railroads' 2.24%. It warns that more of the money is moving into off-balance-sheet vehicles that can hide correlated exposures before a downturn.
Reality
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh's $800 billion adds up mortgages, syndicated loans and project debt across AI's physical infrastructure, and he says loans going bad there would cut what banks can lend everyone else.
Reality