Venezuela hires the money doctor: Hanke to draft a law killing the bolivar and the central bank
The National Assembly named Steve Hanke special adviser and told him to write a full dollarization law. He puts the odds of passage at 50% to 80%.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives65
- Confidence40
The waiver is small against a year of American beef demand and not small against the ground beef it targets. Ranchers will price the risk off expectations, not tonnage.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 47%
- Investor
- Investor 48%
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption12
- Hype gap+40
- Incentives72
- Confidence60
Caracas puts the bill above $100 billion for reserves the White House says more than double America's, a stock claim with no schedule attached while the only new barrels come from Chevron tuning old wells.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 12%
- Operator
- Operator 38%
- Investor
- Investor 50%
Reality
- Evidence44
- Adoption22
- Hype gap+71
- Incentives82
- Confidence63
ESMA calls prediction markets 'rife with insider trading' in its biannual risk report
The European Securities and Markets Authority put the phrase in a report published Thursday. Among the venues it describes is Polymarket, valued at $21 billion after Donald Trump Jr.'s 1789 Capital bought in when it was worth under a billion.
Reality
- Evidence33
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives57
- Confidence41
Hanke is now inside Venezuela's Assembly, and his plan abolishes the central bank
The Johns Hopkins economist advising Caracas puts approval odds at 50 to 80 percent. What passes or fails is the largest retirement of a currency since the euro, and the end of a lender of last resort.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption38
- Hype gap+42
- Incentives78
- Confidence44
Bond vigilantes clear Bessent's red lines, and policy risk becomes a line item
The 10-year sits at 4.696% and the 30-year at 5.284%, both through the markers the Treasury Secretary was defending. The long end is pricing credibility, not the next rate decision.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives55
- Confidence52
Bond vigilantes have crossed Bessent's red line, and the 10-year is now your planning rate
Steve Hanke says a "deadly cocktail" has pushed Treasury yields through the informal 4.5% and 5% markers Scott Bessent defends, and he expects another 50 basis points on the 10-year.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption28
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives66
- Confidence40