Donald Trump threatened to double what South Korea pays unless Seoul backs an Alaska LNG stake Howard Lutnick put at more than $50 billion. Ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms, that pressure is landing on allies while Trump keeps a trade truce with China.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 41%
- Investor
- Investor 54%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives68
- Confidence62
Korea's trade minister flies to Washington unannounced as the $350bn bargain frays at the seams
Kim Jung-kwan left for the United States on the 16th, a day after President Lee dismissed top negotiator Yeo Han-koo. The first project and the tariff ceiling are both unresolved.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption15
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives65
- Confidence50
Coupang's Seoul privacy fight migrates into Washington's tariff column
A House report, a senator's letter to the US trade representative and talk of fresh duties on South Korea have turned one company's data-breach penalty into alliance business, though nobody has yet published what the penalty costs.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives80
- Confidence55
Washington dusts off a 1930 statute to put 50% on $20bn of Canadian goods
Section 338 of the Tariff Act has never been aimed at Canada before. The carve-outs, not the headline rate, show what Washington thinks it can afford to tax.
Reality
- Evidence26
- Adoption32
- Hype gap+31
- Incentives58
- Confidence28
Home Depot's $730M tariff refund moved gross margin 25 basis points. That is the whole story.
Refunded IEEPA duties are landing in retailers' accounts as lump sums, but at Home Depot inflation and acquisition mix consumed most of the benefit before it reached the margin line.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption62
- Hype gap−6
- Incentives68
- Confidence64
Seoul's $200 billion US pledge is running late, and 2.5 points of tariff headroom is all that is left
Korea's trade minister flew to Washington with the first project still unannounced. The arithmetic of an already-levied 12.5% tariff explains why the calendar is now a pricing problem.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption22
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives68
- Confidence42