International oil prices have passed $100 while the US Navy narrows its Hormuz escort windows to two a day, and the overland pipeline that was the alternative to the strait is offline after a drone attack.
Perspective Coverage
6 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 4%
- Operator
- Operator 38%
- Investor
- Investor 58%
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives40
- Confidence58
Six months into a war that has been formally under ceasefire since June, the US says it struck Iranian oil tankers and Tehran's chief negotiator promises heavier retaliation, which changes what a charterer has to underwrite.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption40
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives78
- Confidence56
A Coinbase co-founder signs a PDVSA production contract on a basin Rystad dates to 2035
Fred Ehrsam's Primavera holds a production-sharing contract with PDVSA in the Orinoco Belt, where Rystad Energy expects significant new output only around 2035 and calls execution, not geology, the binding constraint.
Reality
- Evidence36
- Adoption24
- Hype gap+45
- Incentives62
- Confidence41
Record pump prices are running $255bn a year above last year's US fuel bill
GasBuddy has California's diesel average at $7.91 a gallon and the national average past $6 for the first time. The extra $700m a day Americans are paying for fuel works out near $255bn over a year.
Reality
- Evidence54
- Adoption62
- Hype gap+16
- Incentives58
- Confidence48
Diesel at $200 a barrel is charging almost as much for the refinery as for the oil
Crude topped $101 and US diesel passed $200 a barrel for only the second time ever, leaving roughly $99 of refining margin between them, the piece of the shock that sits in refining capacity, not crude supply.
Reality
- Evidence46
- Adoption63
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives72
- Confidence45
Hohhot pairs 186bn yuan of green compute with a till for selling tokens abroad
Twelve Inner Mongolian projects worth 186.46bn yuan were signed alongside a free trade zone platform whose stated jobs include token metering and cross-border settlement.
Reality
- Evidence36
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives82
- Confidence44
Caracas takes 916 exploration blocks to Houston. Two signed deals came back.
Venezuela's new petroleum minister pitched 916 exploration opportunities and 192 trillion cubic feet of gas. The names on paper so far are Hunt Oil and SLB.
Reality
- Evidence44
- Adoption27
- Hype gap+52
- Incentives82
- Confidence55
A 15M bpd claim and a 4-8M bpd count: Gulf export data has stopped being a planning input
Energy Secretary Chris Wright says Middle East flows are back to about 15 million bpd. Tanker trackers put Hormuz alone at 4 to 8 million, and the spread is the number that matters.
Reality
- Evidence28
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+45
- Incentives60
- Confidence30