Bitcoin dropped below $80,000 on Thursday after September PPI came in at 6.3% annually, a day after a hot CPI report. CoinGlass counted $948.22 million of liquidations, 90.6% of them longs, and Nexo says US spot ETF holders are back underwater.
Perspective Coverage
13 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 1%
- Operator
- Operator 35%
- Investor
- Investor 64%
Reality
- Evidence66
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence68
The party's plurality came in a state of barely two million people, too small for any firm to plan against on its own. The federal coalition's response is what firms can actually plan against, and two more state votes are days away.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
Galbraith reads the global bond rout as a forecast of Fed hikes
James Galbraith says long yields are the current short rate plus the expected path of short rates and very little else, so the bond rout is a hike forecast, and because one-and-done is rare the smallest sequence worth pricing is 50 basis points.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives58
- Confidence38
Yardeni sees 10-year yield settling in 4%-5% range consistent with a healthy economy
Robin Brooks says a month of soft activity data failed to pull long yields down, and reads that as thin demand for Treasury paper. Scott Bessent is doubling debt buybacks rather than waiting for the data to help.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives55
- Confidence45
Five sovereign bond markets moved as one, and duration became the position to re-check
A synchronized surge to two-decade-high yields has made the term premium, rather than AI concentration, the exposure worth re-examining this quarter.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives58
- Confidence36
Seven yen, then a giveback: Washington and Tokyo bought time, not a fix
The first joint US-Japan yen intervention in three decades moved the rate about seven yen and handed much of it back, leaving the carry trade as the live risk.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives55
- Confidence44