Three of 31 state election-deepfake laws ban some fakes even when they carry an AI label
National Conference of State Legislatures counts 31 states with election-deepfake laws, 28 built on disclosure and three that ban some fakes despite a label. Where a label is all the law asks, a fabricated candidate video can keep circulating once it carries one.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence60
US campaigns have disclosed at least $17m in AI spending that candidates rarely discuss
FEC filings show 523 federal candidates and campaigns disclosed at least $17m on AI vendors since 2020, though candidates rarely talk about it. Chatbot subscriptions are a small office cost in those records, while the bigger sums buy automated texting from vendors split by party.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives30
- Confidence55
Donald Trump opens a 32-day midterm campaign in Texas and Oklahoma as AP-NORC puts approval of his handling of the economy at a record-low 26%. He is spending his first days on ground his party once held easily, so investors should treat a change in control of Congress on Nov. 3 as a live outcome.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives75
- Confidence60
The $5,000 check Trump promised at the Republican midterm convention would cost about $1.35 trillion by one Wharton estimate. It rests on tariff revenue the Supreme Court has already narrowed.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+70
- Incentives80
- Confidence66
Funding Trump's $5,000 dividend at 4.92 per cent adds about $59bn a year in coupon
A Fortune column pins the 30-year's move to 5.35 per cent on Trump's Dallas pledge and prices the payment at $8,000 a head. That second figure holds only if the coupons are borrowed too.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives65
- Confidence50