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Paris Agreement

2015 UN treaty under which nearly 200 nations pledged to limit global warming to well below 2°C, pursuing 1.5°C, via national emissions targets.

Known aliases

  • 2015 Paris Agreement
  • Paris accord
  • Paris climate accord
  • Paris climate agreement
  • Paris climate pact

Current stories

leadershipOne report1 publisher

Saudi Arabia and Russia lead a push to move the IPCC's seventh report from 2028 to 2029

A group led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, including India and China, is pressing the IPCC to move its seventh report to 2029, the Guardian reported. The report was timed for the Cop33 summit in 2028, so a slip would put it after the meeting.

Publishers:theguardian.com

Reality

Evidence50
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap
Not scored
Incentives55
Confidence50
investOne report1 publisher

Two months separate the IPCC chairs' report schedule from the 2028 Paris stocktake

Nearly three years of debate have left the IPCC's 195 member states without publication dates for the next assessment. Under the chairs' proposal, approval would come about two months before the November 2028 Paris stocktake.

Publishers:thehindu.com

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+10
Incentives50
Confidence55
scienceConfirmed3 publishers

Every one of the eight hottest months ever measured has arrived since July 2023

Copernicus put August 2026 at 16.96C, a hundredth of a degree above July 2023 and inside its own uncertainty, so it calls the month a tie. The clustering of the record months is the firmer finding.

Perspective Coverage

3 publishers
Builder
Builder 18%
Operator
Operator 54%
Investor
Investor 28%

Reality

Evidence78
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+15
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence74
scienceOne report1 publisher

KIN-commissioned report judges every available carbon removal technology unready for Dutch scale-up

Researchers led by the University of Twente conclude in a KIN-commissioned report that no available carbon removal technology is ready for Dutch scale-up. They want rules on land, water, energy and fair burden-sharing in place before any national push toward deployment.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence35
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap
Not scored
Incentives30
Confidence40
scienceOne report1 publisher

Strict Paris-aligned cuts are at least 89% likely to mean less Antarctic ice loss by 2100

Researchers writing in Nature Geoscience give at least 89% odds that the strictest Paris path costs Antarctica less ice by 2100 than very high emissions. For coastal planners, that puts part of Antarctica's future contribution to sea level within reach of emissions policy.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap0
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence55
scienceOne report1 publisher

Hundreds of thousands of screened simulations point to net Antarctic ice loss even at 1.5C

Researchers screening hundreds of thousands of simulated futures in Nature Geoscience find Antarctica loses ice on net this century, even at 1.5C of warming. In the runs that survive, extra snowfall does not outweigh the loss, so Antarctica adds to sea-level rise this century.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+20
Incentives40
Confidence45
scienceConfirmed5 publishers

UNEP's route back to 1.5C rests on removing 10 gigatonnes of CO2 a year

UNEP now accepts the overshoot and describes a way back to 1.5C by 2100 that needs global emissions halved by 2035 and then removal running at a scale one outside researcher puts at 100,000 times today's.

Perspective Coverage

5 publishers
Builder
Builder 28%
Operator
Operator 53%
Investor
Investor 19%

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption6
Hype gap+45
Incentives50
Confidence60
scienceOne report1 publisher

Canada's Changing Climate Report warns of 5°C warming by 2100 as UNEP report finds world set to blow past 1.5°C target

Both reports released this month treat passing 1.5°C as the working assumption, and the account of them from one of the Canadian authors gives the 5°C national figure without naming an emissions scenario or a range.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+14
Incentives62
Confidence48
scienceOne report1 publisher

Emissions released since 2015 warmed Europe's hottest week every year since 2021, a GRL study finds

Attribution science usually asks what two centuries of fossil fuel burning did to a heat wave. A Stanford group asked what the ten years since the Paris Agreement did, and found a measurable answer in Europe's worst recent heat.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence60
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+8
Incentives55
Confidence55
leadershipOne report1 publisher

Foreign Affairs urges Guterres's successor to shrink the UN to three core functions

Antonio Guterres leaves at the end of the year after spending his final two years on cost cuts, and the three named candidates to replace him would take over a system whose revenue grew 85 percent between 2010 and 2022.

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+18
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence55
scienceOne report1 publisher

Amazon tipping-point model sets its threshold at 1.5 degrees and 22% deforestation

Bernardo Flores says warming has already reached the first of those two conditions, and the El Nino now strengthening is likely the strongest on record, arriving in a basin where at least 40% of the forest is estimated to be degraded.

Publishers:livescience.com

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+35
Incentives45
Confidence55
scienceOne report1 publisher

Albedo and water balance decide whether dryland tree planting cools anything

A phys.org explainer sets the Bonn Challenge's 350-million-hectare target against dryland ecology, where planting trees can cut river flow and darken bright ground enough to cancel part of the carbon gain.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence34
Adoption46
Hype gap+16
Incentives32
Confidence45
scienceOne report1 publisher

Modelled 1.7C pathway cuts Australian coal exports 95% before 2040

Climate Analytics and the Potsdam Institute treat the 1.5C breach as settled and model how long the overshoot lasts. Their Australian pathway needs a 55% cut on 2005 levels by 2030, where current policy delivers 43%.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption18
Hype gap+20
Incentives70
Confidence50
scienceOne report1 publisher

Southern Ocean feedbacks put a floor under atmospheric CO2 in a carbon-removal model

A new model has the world's largest carbon sink turning into a source once concentrations start falling, with two heat-driven feedbacks amplifying the outgassing for centuries after net zero and capping what removal delivers.

Publishers:newscientist.com

Reality

Evidence57
Adoption12
Hype gap+15
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence50
scienceOne report1 publisher

Australia's first national coastal flood accounting totals $855 billion by 2100

Melbourne and ANU researchers mapped inundation onto property registers under a mid-range warming scenario, then held storm intensity constant and left erosion out, which is why $855 billion is a floor.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption22
Hype gap−12
Incentives58
Confidence55
scienceOne report1 publisher

Plastics researchers press UN delegates to make measurement a treaty requirement

UC Santa Barbara and Tsinghua authors argue in Science that the first plastics treaty text needs standardized labeling, measurement practices and national data repositories. Their paper feeds a workshop in Geneva on Sept. 16-17.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption10
Hype gap+15
Incentives62
Confidence48
investOne report1 publisher

Moody's says Asia now finances a pragmatic transition that keeps coal in the mix

Rahul Ghosh's "pragmatic transition" is a ratings agency describing an underwriting rule: Asian frameworks safeguard transition assets more than Europe's do, so one cash flow can carry two costs of capital.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence46
Adoption61
Hype gap+19
Incentives68
Confidence44
scienceOne report1 publisher

Australia's mandatory climate filings show big miners planning for a world past 2C

Rio Tinto's disclosed central case runs to 2.1C-2.3C by 2100, above the peak warming scientists say still allows a return to safe levels. Its future production plans, the same filing says, are unchanged.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence54
Adoption61
Hype gap+14
Incentives58
Confidence62

Earlier coverage