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Person

Neel Kashkari

President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis since 2016 and a Federal Open Market Committee participant, often a hawkish voice on inflation.

Known aliases

  • Kashkari

Current stories

investOne report1 publisher

Holding U.S. debt flat would take 5%-6% real growth, CBO's Swagel estimates

CBO Director Phillip Swagel put the real growth needed to stop U.S. debt rising against GDP at 5%-6%, more than double the current pace. He told a Minneapolis Fed conference that what remains is tax and spending changes, which he called inherently political choices.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+10
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence60
investOne report1 publisher

Three regional Fed presidents voted to hike against a quarter annualizing at 0.49%

The 3.4% headline that drew three dissents for immediate hikes is carried by nine older months running near 4.4% annualized. Clearing those months out of the window takes nine more monthly prints.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence38
Adoption45
Hype gap+20
Incentives55
Confidence45
investOne report1 publisher

Kashkari's long-end diagnosis: a supply problem the Fed does not plan to solve

The Minneapolis Fed president calls a 4.7% ten-year and a 30-year above 5% orderly, points at deficits and AI capex, and offers no rescue. Price the long end accordingly.

Reality

Evidence32
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+18
Incentives58
Confidence34