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Naked Capitalism

Naked Capitalism is a finance and economic-policy blog publishing commentary and analysis on markets, banking, geopolitics, and political economy.

Known aliases

  • nakedcapitalism.com

Current stories

investConfirmed5 publishers

A Long End With a Minder: Bessent's Yield Intervention Is the Real Repricing Risk

Naked Capitalism says Bessent has moved to contain longer-dated Treasury yields, against the Fed. Duration holders should care more about that than about another Iran sanctions threat.

Perspective Coverage

5 publishers
Builder
Builder 1%
Operator
Operator 42%
Investor
Investor 57%

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+35
Incentives60
Confidence40
investOne report1 publisher

Galbraith reads the global bond rout as a forecast of Fed hikes

James Galbraith says long yields are the current short rate plus the expected path of short rates and very little else, so the bond rout is a hike forecast, and because one-and-done is rare the smallest sequence worth pricing is 50 basis points.

Reality

Evidence32
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+28
Incentives58
Confidence38
investOne report1 publisher

Oil holds $101 as Saudi exports climb back to 70 per cent of normal

Naked Capitalism reports crude at $101 with Persian Gulf flows increasing and Riyadh exporting at about 70 per cent of its old normal. The futures curve and the baseline barrels, the two things that would price that bid, are not in the reporting.

Reality

Evidence35
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+30
Incentives70
Confidence40
investOne report1 publisher

Three extra years of hold need 22.5% more exit value to leave private equity's investors level

Sebastien Canderle says buyout managers still cannot sell, so capital pension funds had budgeted to arrive after four or five years sits at carrying value while CalPERS's estimated 7% a year keeps compounding against it.

Reality

Evidence40
Adoption52
Hype gap+22
Incentives68
Confidence45
investOne report1 publisher

Iran doubled the hull count in each round of the Gulf tanker exchange

One tally has the exchange running three tankers to six vessels and then five to ten; the IRGC's own statement counts twenty targets, which would make it four for one, and the only price in the material is a headline.

Reality

Evidence22
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+38
Incentives82
Confidence30
investOne report1 publisher

Diesel at a record $5.90 is where Hormuz risk actually lands on a P&L

Brown University's tracker has the Iran war billing US consumers $1m every two minutes, which is about $720m a day, and the line rising fastest inside that total is the diesel one that freight buyers pay.

Reality

Evidence42
Adoption58
Hype gap+24
Incentives55
Confidence45
investOne report1 publisher

Mamdani puts City Hall's referral machinery behind private-sector union drives

New York's Office of Worker Power gets a director who ran the United Auto Workers' organizing department and an order pushing three city agencies toward proactive labor investigations, while its budget and headcount stay unstated.

Reality

Evidence61
Adoption31
Hype gap+27
Incentives66
Confidence54
investOne report1 publisher

Bessent lends Japan dollars against the Treasuries Tokyo might otherwise sell

Roughly $87 billion of yen buying, funded by a repo against Japan's own bond holdings, is being asked to steady a carry trade that estimates put between $500 billion and $4 trillion, and Yves Smith expects it to hold briefly.

Reality

Evidence26
Adoption20
Hype gap+14
Incentives45
Confidence32
investOne report1 publisher

Four five-year leases are doing the work of a twenty-year AI commitment

Naked Capitalism, reading a Groundbreaker post, argues the AI buildout's take-or-pay obligations reset in 2027 and 2028, and because those leases sit outside sponsor debt there is no disclosure to size them.

Reality

Evidence28
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+32
Incentives55
Confidence34
investOne report1 publisher

Europe's 12-point storage shortfall pushes the LNG bidding war into 2027 budgets

European gas storage sits at 63% against a flexible 75% November target. The front month has traded above deferred contracts all summer, and the shortfall carried out of March lands in 2027 budgets.

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption58
Hype gap+18
Incentives55
Confidence50
investOne report1 publisher

Canada's heavy barrels outrank Hormuz in the US diesel arithmetic

Traders put 7 to 8 million barrels a day back through the Strait while US reserve draws fell about 40 percent, which leaves heavy Canadian feedstock, not Gulf crude volume, as the number that sets American diesel costs.

Reality

Evidence28
Adoption42
Hype gap+34
Incentives66
Confidence33
investOne report1 publisher

Europe trades cheap because its firms cannot scale, and that does not mean revert

A VoxEU column puts the US-Europe listed equity gap at $34 trillion and blames market fragmentation and small-firm cost of capital. That changes what the cheap-Europe trade is buying.

Reality

Evidence48
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+24
Incentives58
Confidence42
investOne report1 publisher

Bankruptcy Filings Rose 12% in June While 2025 Job Growth Was Revised To Nothing

More than 500,000 Americans filed in 2025, nearly 50% above the 2022 count. The consumer credit cycle is turning while the headline economy still reads as fine.

Reality

Evidence32
Adoption58
Hype gap+28
Incentives62
Confidence38
investOne report1 publisher

Water Rights, Not Megawatts, Are Becoming the Gating Item on New Load

Two former utility research heads argue water scarcity is now an energy-security problem. For anyone siting a plant or a data center, that moves water out of the ESG appendix and into diligence.

Reality

Evidence22
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+28
Incentives58
Confidence27
investOne report1 publisher

France's under-15 ban dies on the arithmetic of age gates: to check minors, you check everyone

The Constitutional Council struck down Macron's flagship social media ban days before it was due to take effect, and its reasoning sets the test every EU age-assurance mandate now has to pass.

Reality

Evidence52
Adoption58
Hype gap+22
Incentives68
Confidence47
investOne report1 publisher

New York's K has a headcount: 40,700 people took 53% of the city's income growth

Millionaires captured more than half of post-pandemic income growth while poverty hit a record for a third straight year, per The City Reporter. Demand and politics both narrow.

Reality

Evidence38
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+22
Incentives62
Confidence41
investOne report1 publisher

Food-bank queues in three states are the cleanest demand signal you will get on the bottom quintile

SNAP cuts have pushed 4.5 million people off benefits and food banks say they cannot make up the gap. If you sell discretionary goods to that cohort, reprice your assumptions.

Reality

Evidence52
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+22
Incentives71
Confidence44