Coinbase, which says it custodies about 5% of all bitcoin, warned on October 13 that a quantum-resistant upgrade could take years. It backs BIP-360, P2TRv2 and hybrid wallets now and wants dormant and lost coins settled separately.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 47%
- Operator
- Operator 25%
- Investor
- Investor 28%
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption8
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives60
- Confidence68
AI mathematics could weaken ML-DSA and Falcon within two years, Buterin says
Vitalik Buterin said on X on Oct. 7 that AI progress in mathematics could weaken lattice schemes ML-DSA and Falcon within two years. He suggested raising lattice key sizes tenfold to protect encryption outside blockchains.
Reality
- Evidence22
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence45
buildOne report1 publisher AWS publishes a reference pipeline for signing software artifacts with ML-DSA
AWS says teams can sign binaries, container images and SBOMs with ML-DSA today, using KMS, Private CA and IAM Roles Anywhere. CNSA 2.0 mandates exclusive quantum-resistant software signatures by 2030, and AWS dates the EU CRA's full effect to December 2027.
Reality
- Evidence35
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives60
- Confidence45
Charles Hoskinson said on Oct. 9 that Vitalik Buterin's AI warning could slow the lattice-based protections NIST standardized in 2024. Ethereum is the one project the sources show moving away from lattices, so the test is whether anyone else follows.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence60
Justin Sun says Tron is ready to bring quantum resistance to mainnet at any time, now that post-quantum signatures run on its Nile testnet. Mainnet still needs separate governance approval, Crypto Briefing reported, and the opt-in design reaches only holders who adopt it.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption10
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives65
- Confidence55
Vitalik Buterin said AI-driven mathematics has a good chance of seriously weakening lattice cryptography within two years. He offered no demonstrated attack, and for teams adopting post-quantum schemes the forecast argues for lattice deployments built to be replaced.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 40%
- Operator
- Operator 41%
- Investor
- Investor 19%
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives35
- Confidence60
Project Eleven and Quantus set a first-quarter 2027 date for quantum-ready custody controls
Project Eleven and Quantus aim to let institutions hold Quantus keys under their own hardware, approval and audit controls from the first quarter of 2027. The date covers one privacy chain; for bitcoin and ether, the custodians' migration still has no date.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption5
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives80
- Confidence35
Buterin gives AI-driven maths a good chance of weakening ML-DSA within two years
Vitalik Buterin says AI-driven maths research has a "good chance" of significantly weakening lattice signatures such as ML-DSA within two years. His fixes put the cost on key sizes and multisig signing routines while steering holders away from mass fund migrations.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives35
- Confidence30
Quantus opened QTC trading through Near Intents, reachable from 180-plus assets on 30-plus chains, with no centralized exchange listing at launch. The test is whether swap routing can give a new coin the depth and holders that a listing usually brings.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives65
- Confidence50
buildOne report1 publisher Cloudflare Workers adds ML-KEM and ML-DSA to Web Crypto behind an opt-in flag
Cloudflare Workers adds five ML-KEM and ML-DSA parameter sets to Web Crypto behind the webcrypto_modern_algorithms flag. Developers can now test post-quantum code against primitives built into the runtime, but they still have to build the protocols on top.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap0
- Incentives55
- Confidence62
Hybrid ML-KEM is live on google.com and googleapis.com, and Cloud KMS post-quantum algorithms are generally available. The rest of the roadmap is a dated dependency schedule.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption40
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives55
- Confidence65
buildConfirmed5 publishers Generic methods collapse per-type API sprawl, go fix gains four modernizers, and the goroutineleak profile in runtime/pprof is now generally available. GoLand 2026.2 supports all three.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 66%
- Operator
- Operator 34%
- Investor
- Investor 0%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives45
- Confidence70
buildOne report1 publisher Hybrid ML-KEM key exchange adds about 1,600 bytes to every fresh TLS handshake
AWS and Microsoft are already shipping ML-KEM hybrid groups, so the question for platform teams is whether the old proxy, SDK and appliance in the path still complete a handshake that got bigger.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives20
- Confidence45
buildOne report1 publisher Apple relocates image provenance from the edit chain to the iPhone sensor
Reference mode on the iPhone 18 Pro signs pixels as they leave the sensor and finishes the picture inside Private Cloud Compute, so anyone building a verification pipeline now has an Apple trust root to handle alongside C2PA.
Reality
- Evidence56
- Adoption24
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives72
- Confidence57
buildOne report1 publisher Cloudflare swapped a years-old TLS guess for a daily probe of every origin
Probing each origin for its preferred key agreement group dropped HelloRetryRequests on scanned origins from about 52% to 3.7% and took more than 150 ms off p90 handshakes, after the price of the old classical-first default had climbed 25-fold since 2023.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption68
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives72
- Confidence63
NIST sets 2030 and 2035 retirement dates for quantum-vulnerable algorithms, raising stakes for banks
Post-quantum standards were finalised in August 2024, and NIST means to phase out most quantum-vulnerable algorithms by 2035. For banks the harder problem is finding every place RSA and ECC are written into application code.
Reality
- Evidence46
- Adoption32
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives64
- Confidence50
FINMA gives Swiss banks about a year to put a post-quantum plan before the board
Three regulators have now dated the migration away from today's encryption, and the nearest date belongs to FINMA, which wants supervised institutions to get a post-quantum strategy through the board by mid-2027.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives45
- Confidence45
buildOne report1 publisher IonQ's secp256k1 estimate spends 13 physical qubits on every logical one
The 26-day figure is a runtime rather than a date, and it works out to one logical Toffoli every 57.6 milliseconds on trapped-ion hardware whose scale IonQ's roadmap does not reach until 2028. No error rates are published to check it.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+40
- Incentives80
- Confidence40
The G7's report carries no binding force and never says the word crypto, arriving four months before the EU wants member states moving, and it pushes quantum readiness into government procurement, which is how the cost eventually reaches private custodians.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption28
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives45
- Confidence58
buildOne report1 publisher JDK 24 relocates the post-quantum blocker to your key custody plumbing
InfoQ's Spring Boot walkthrough puts ML-KEM and ML-DSA behind the standard JCE on JDK 24. That retires the library argument and leaves the migration gated on where a private key lives and how long your service tokens do.
Reality
- Evidence44
- Adoption22
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives32
- Confidence41