Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said he will spend the next 100 days on supervision, regulation and payments processing after months absorbed by monetary policy. It lands days before the Fed's Oct. 27-28 meeting, the first of the rate decisions that will compete for his time.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 9%
- Operator
- Operator 25%
- Investor
- Investor 66%
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence70
Bowman says Basel and the FSB lifted language from flawed US reports on Silicon Valley Bank
Michelle Bowman, the Fed's Vice Chair for Supervision, told a Bangkok audience that other countries should copy her three supervisory changes. She also chairs an FSB committee, so the criticism of Basel and the FSB comes from a member with a seat.
Reality
- Evidence35
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap
- Not scored
- Incentives70
- Confidence50
Bowman's overhaul puts regional Fed supervision chiefs on a reporting line to Washington
Fed supervision chief Michelle Bowman's overhaul makes the Board in Washington accountable for ground-level bank supervision that has sat with the 12 reserve banks. How much say those banks' presidents keep over exams in their districts is the open question.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives55
- Confidence45
Bowman splits Fed bank supervision into five state-line regions, each with one accountable leader
Fed supervision chief Michelle Bowman is scrapping dozens of internal committees and regrouping bank oversight into five regions drawn on state lines. A parallel plan to raise asset thresholds by as much as 50%, on TD Cowen's estimate, will decide more of what banks pay for supervision.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives45
- Confidence50
Buyers pulled the 10-year Treasury yield from a 24-year high of 5.34% to a 5.233% close on Thursday, after its biggest quarterly rise since 1994. Part of that demand was a flight to safety, and part was a bet that the Fed holds off on further hikes.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 0%
- Operator
- Operator 8%
- Investor
- Investor 92%
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence60
Primary dealers have added $100 billion of Treasuries against Bowman's $5 trillion of eSLR headroom
Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman says this year's eSLR changes freed as much as $5 trillion of headroom at primary-dealer holding companies. Dealers have used about $100 billion of it on Treasuries so far, and she concedes the reform's real test comes in a selloff.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives65
- Confidence45
Fed stress-test reforms hand banks a January comment window on the scenarios that set their capital
Federal Reserve stress-test reforms finalized Wednesday put large-bank scenarios out for public comment each January and average results over two years. Banks now get a say in the inputs to their capital requirements, so the question for shareholders is whether banks release the excess capital they have held against random results.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives72
- Confidence58
Michelle Bowman, the Fed's top supervisor, told community bankers that boards own AI-driven cyber risk and must match their cyber spending to their bank's risk. She gave no dollar benchmark, so the standard will only be as strong as the IT examiners who apply it, and she says their approach is tailored to each bank's risk profile.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence65
The Starling Trust Sciences review found Fed supervisors felt safer taking no action, and Bowman's response is a standing report on where examiners were uncertain, visible to leadership in real time. She has not published the review.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives60
- Confidence55
Bank capital proposal frees six times more headroom for securitizations than for corporate loans
The minimum risk weight on certain senior securitization exposures would fall from 20% to 15% while corporate loans go from 100% to 95%, and Graham Steele says the private credit financing chain behind those numbers is already hard to map.
Reality
- Evidence56
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives62
- Confidence52
Capital Economics's 30% drawdown needs the S&P multiple back at 13.7 times
James Reilly's September 10 report has the S&P 500 cracking next year and eventually falling at least 30% from its high, while Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's committee still carries a year-end target of 8,000.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives66
- Confidence48
Better Markets sues to have court withdraw Basel III proposal, seeks Bowman's recusal
Better Markets says Michelle Bowman met big-bank executives privately and coached them to file mild comments, and it wants the Basel III proposal withdrawn and Bowman recused. She said she directed no one.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives70
- Confidence60