Judge Alvin Hellerstein denied a joint Gemini and CFTC motion to vacate a January 2025 consent order, keeping its $5 million penalty and injunction. The penalty is already paid, so the live stake was the permanent injunction barring false statements to the CFTC.
Perspective Coverage
9 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 44%
- Investor
- Investor 51%
Reality
- Evidence82
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives55
- Confidence84
Hyperliquid CEO Jeff Yan wants US regulators to oversee the firms deploying markets on its chain, each of which must stake 500,000 HYPE. Under his model the chain itself sits outside exchange-level rules, and the licence and the liability belong to each operator.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives65
- Confidence62
TD Cowen sees a realistic risk that the CFTC's leveraged crypto rules unravel before the 2028 election
TD Cowen's Jaret Seiberg says the CFTC's leveraged retail crypto rules may not be final until early 2028, colliding with the election cycle. A new administration could revise or drop them, and a rushed schedule invites a procedural court challenge.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap−10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence50
CFTC proposed two crypto leverage rules under existing law on October 5, 20 days after the CLARITY Act stalled 49-50 in the Senate. Until Congress acts, what counts as compliant for leveraged retail crypto will be set by CFTC rulemaking.
Reality
- Evidence66
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence64
CFTC opens comment on a federal crypto venue for retail trades financed with leverage or margin
CFTC's October 5 advance notice seeks comment on a federally registered crypto venue for retail trades made with leverage, margin or financing. Chair Michael Selig says registration is voluntary and a mandate over every spot trade needs Congress.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap−5
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence60
Pham says the CFTC can regulate crypto without new laws, citing a statute that excludes onions
Former CFTC acting chair Caroline Pham says the Commodity Exchange Act already gives the agency extensive crypto authority after its October 5 proposal. The CLARITY Act failed to advance in September, so regulators are left with existing powers while lawmakers weigh more legislation.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives60
- Confidence50
Two days after the Senate stalled the CLARITY Act, the CFTC's Market Participants Division opened Phantom's March no-action position to any software provider that stays clear of custody and order routing, on ten conditions.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 42%
- Operator
- Operator 29%
- Investor
- Investor 29%
Reality
- Evidence78
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives60
- Confidence74
A House committee handed crypto users a break on fees of $10 or less and paid for it by importing the anti-abuse rules that govern stocks, and the traders who harvest losses in December are the ones paying.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 11%
- Operator
- Operator 41%
- Investor
- Investor 48%
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives55
- Confidence65
Trump asked Congress again for the CLARITY Act. A mid-September cloture vote, a crowded Senate calendar and an unresolved ethics fight say the clarity is not arriving this year.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 30%
- Operator
- Operator 36%
- Investor
- Investor 34%
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+45
- Incentives72
- Confidence64
French Hill, the House Financial Services chair, says SEC and CFTC crypto rules fall short of the CLARITY Act the Senate blocked 49-50 last month. His case is that a later administration can rewrite rules issued under existing agency authority, while a statute would hold.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 20%
- Operator
- Operator 43%
- Investor
- Investor 37%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives62
- Confidence70
A White House remark about CFTC Chairman Michael Selig repriced HYPE and a Nasdaq treasury stock. No approval, no registration path and no timeline has been put on the record.
Perspective Coverage
7 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 13%
- Operator
- Operator 36%
- Investor
- Investor 51%
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+55
- Incentives68
- Confidence60
CFTC proposed two crypto rules creating a narrower exchange license for leveraged, margined and financed trades, open to comment for 60 days. Plain spot trading falls outside the CFTC's authority, and officials say they cannot yet size that leftover market.
Perspective Coverage
17 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 13%
- Operator
- Operator 48%
- Investor
- Investor 39%
Reality
- Evidence78
- Adoption8
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives62
- Confidence72
Better Markets presses the CFTC to bar exchanges from trading on their own platforms
Better Markets wants the CFTC to bar exchanges from trading on their own platforms, citing an agency count of six that already do. The figure shows the practice exists, though an arms race would need an earlier count and a total to measure.
Reality
- Evidence35
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives65
- Confidence40
CFTC staff let U.S. exchanges remove expiry dates from perpetual-style index futures on October 3, with five days' notice to holders of open positions. Contracts on other assets are excluded, so this is a narrow step toward bringing onshore a product that has mostly traded offshore.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption15
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives40
- Confidence68
CFTC's October 5 notice suggests retail crypto counts as delivered within 28 days only if the customer holds the private keys. That preliminary test would decide whether coins kept on exchange books fall under rules the agency has not yet proposed.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives60
- Confidence58
Michael Selig filed an early-stage crypto rulemaking with the White House budget office two days after the Senate stalled the CLARITY Act, and the filing's own schedule puts a binding rule in late 2027.
Perspective Coverage
6 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 14%
- Operator
- Operator 45%
- Investor
- Investor 41%
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption6
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives55
- Confidence60
CFTC sent the White House two rules on Sept. 28 that would define event contracts as swaps and carve out casino-style gambling products. The agency is trying to settle by rule a state-federal fight that has split appeals courts and now sits before the Supreme Court.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 18%
- Operator
- Operator 49%
- Investor
- Investor 33%
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives65
- Confidence72
Hester Peirce exits the SEC on October 2, cutting it to two Republican commissioners with seven seats empty across the SEC and CFTC. Crypto Briefing warns that one recusal could then leave the commission short of a quorum on crypto and market rules.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence65
New York Attorney General Letitia James sued Polymarket as an unlicensed gambling business, the state's fourth such case, and Polymarket countersued within hours. Platforms are now setting age limits and state-by-state access while courts decide whether states or the CFTC govern prediction markets.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 18%
- Operator
- Operator 45%
- Investor
- Investor 37%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives65
- Confidence70
CFTC staff cleared registered firms on September 24 to invest customer funds in tokenized forms of permitted investments and to keep their books on a blockchain. The update came days after the Senate stalled the CLARITY Act, but it only changes the form assets take and leaves the CFTC-SEC split to Congress.
Reality
- Evidence74
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence70
Earlier coverage
- With CLARITY stalled, crypto market structure shifts to a White House table and a one-man CFTC
Invest · August 16, 2026 · Confirmed3 publishers
- New York extends its prediction-market gambling crackdown to Polymarket
Invest · September 27, 2026 · Confirmed12 publishers
- Galaxy cuts CLARITY odds to 10%, and crypto's regulatory plan B becomes the plan
Invest · August 17, 2026 · Confirmed3 publishers
- With CLARITY stalled, plan compliance against SEC and CFTC staff, not statute
Invest · August 18, 2026 · Confirmed3 publishers
- Kalshi asks the CFTC to put crypto's perpetual futures on US stocks and copper
Invest · August 19, 2026 · Confirmed2 publishers
- Selig says he will write the crypto rules himself if CLARITY stays stalled
Invest · August 20, 2026 · Confirmed5 publishers
- CME and Kalshi trade insults as prediction-market rules become a federal-state fight
Invest · August 20, 2026 · Confirmed3 publishers
- Hyperliquid asks for equity perps as security futures, and no rulemaking to get there
Invest · August 24, 2026 · Confirmed2 publishers
- Payward turns Bitnomial's decade of licenses into an onshore wrapper for Hyperliquid
Invest · September 1, 2026 · Confirmed4 publishers
- Nasdaq's 19.99% rule gates $1.1bn of Hyperliquid Strategies' doubled HYPE facility
Invest · September 2, 2026 · Confirmed3 publishers
- Ondo tells the SEC and CFTC that stock perps are already legal
Invest · September 3, 2026 · One report1 publisher
- A Kalshi-funded letter asks the SEC and CFTC to write perps rules to actual risk
Invest · August 31, 2026 · Confirmed2 publishers
- Kalshi's own surveillance desk supplies the CFTC with a second event-contract settlement in four weeks
Invest · August 29, 2026 · Confirmed3 publishers