A federal judge refused to order Google to sell its ad exchange, which takes a forced sale off the table for the ad stack, and the small bounce that followed says the argument over Alphabet has moved to the token price sheet.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 27%
- Operator
- Operator 25%
- Investor
- Investor 48%
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives55
- Confidence60
The court rejected all three structural remedies the Justice Department asked for and accepted most of the behavioral ones. The opinion saying which ones is sealed, so nobody yet knows what Google must actually do.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 18%
- Operator
- Operator 45%
- Investor
- Investor 37%
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives65
- Confidence60
Judge Brinkema found the tying illegal and still left AdX inside Google, so publishers keep paying the same 20% fee and the only relief on offer is a set of conduct terms sealed from view for a fortnight.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 13%
- Operator
- Operator 35%
- Investor
- Investor 52%
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives40
- Confidence64
The unsealed 106-page opinion keeps Google's exchange intact but ends the rule that DFP publishers route through it, and it sets six years of outside oversight whose scope the reporting still disagrees on.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives62
- Confidence58
Google keeps AdX under a six-year interoperability order
Judge Leonie Brinkema refused to order a sale of AdX and instead bound Google to six years of interoperability terms and an internal compliance monitor, over a unit the New York Times puts at about $30 billion a year.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives60
- Confidence45
Brinkema leaves Brussels alone in asking Google to sell part of its ad stack
The judge who found Google liable says a divestment is not necessary to fix it, which leaves Brussels alone on structural remedy and leaves ad ops teams planning against conduct rules nobody outside the Commission has read yet.
Reality
- Evidence57
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives74
- Confidence60
Brinkema outlaws three Google auction mechanics without touching its 91% ad server share
The court ended first look, last look and mandatory uniform floors, but Google still owns both the ad server publishers depend on and the exchange it feeds, which makes AdX's decade-old 20% take rate the test.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives60
- Confidence50
Judge rejects AdX breakup for Google, orders behavioral remedies instead
Judge Brinkema found Google's display ad business an illegal monopoly in April, then declined to order the AdX sale the Justice Department asked for, so the people who run ad stacks get amended rules on a product Google already folded away.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives60
- Confidence50
The AdX remedy shrinks to a set of conduct rules on Google Ad Manager
Having found an illegal monopoly last April, Judge Brinkema has accepted modified behavioral remedies rather than the AdX sale the Justice Department asked for, so publishers keep planning around one integrated Google Ad Manager.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives52
- Confidence56
Brinkema lets Google keep the ad stack her own ruling called nearly impossible to leave
The Justice Department asked for a divestiture of Google's ad tech and came away with conduct rules that nobody outside the case has read yet, which leaves publishers planning their next renewal against a remedy still being redacted.
Reality
- Evidence46
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives68
- Confidence44