A New Taipei court ordered Coinbase and Kalshi blocked on October 15, a little over six weeks before Taiwan's November 28 local elections. Kalshi already faces actions in Washington, Nevada and New York, so Taiwan is the fourth government to move against it.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 8%
- Operator
- Operator 45%
- Investor
- Investor 47%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence70
Lai casts Taiwan's record NT$1.12 trillion defence budget as deterrence against Beijing
Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te used his National Day speech to reject subordination to Beijing and defend a record NT$1.12 trillion defence budget. Beijing answered with a written statement that restates terms for talks Lai's party does not accept.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap0
- Incentives70
- Confidence60
Taiwan has received the first two of 66 F-16 Block 70 jets it ordered from the US in 2019 for $7.76 billion, after a six-week stop in Hawaii. The other 64 are due by the end of 2026, on a schedule that has already slipped.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 26%
- Operator
- Operator 41%
- Investor
- Investor 33%
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption3
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives60
- Confidence65
Taiwan tops up US chip pledge by $20bn, pushing total past TSMC's own $265bn build-out
The 15% tariff Taipei bought with $250bn of promised fab investment is a rate that gets re-quoted whenever Washington asks again, which makes the tariff line in a hardware bill of materials a political variable.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives75
- Confidence50
Taiwan's war game moved the front line to a Taipei intersection a mile from the presidential office
The Han Kuang exercise closed with mines and barricades at a city crossroads, not on a beach. Anyone modelling Taiwan risk as a blockade should note whose assumptions changed.
Reality
- Evidence64
- Adoption72
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives58
- Confidence66
Taipei sizes its next U.S. chip commitment at 7.5% of TSMC's Arizona plan
Economy minister Kung Ming-hsin put a $20 billion figure on Taiwanese investment in America and declined to say whose money it is, which is worth pricing against the $265 billion one company has already promised Arizona.
Reality
- Evidence26
- Adoption14
- Hype gap+44
- Incentives83
- Confidence33
Taiwan's war rehearsal reached the streets of Taipei by night six
The defence ministry would not say what it was testing, so the ground it chose becomes the record: an airport approach road, a subway ride to a fallback headquarters, and what that implies about the fight Taipei expects to have.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption64
- Hype gap−8
- Incentives58
- Confidence55
Taiwan turns an 11.05% growth forecast into a cash cheque for every citizen
A chip and AI export boom has reached the budget: a universal NT$10,000 payment, a record defence bill, and an opposition asking why last year's unconstitutional idea is now policy.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption22
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives74
- Confidence40
Taiwan's 14.55% quarter is buying a fiscal fight, not a fiscal cushion
A KMT-backed NT$236bn cash handout has cleared first reading over Executive Yuan objections. The AI boom is now a domestic political variable, and it prices differently from a chip cycle.
Reality
- Evidence22
- Adoption34
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives66
- Confidence28