Company
Kpler is a commodities, energy, and shipping analytics firm that tracks vessel movements, trade flows, and freight data for markets including oil and gas.
BBC Verify's analysis of UKMTO data shows 12 ships reported attacks near Hormuz in the week of 5-11 October, the most since the war began. Oil flows through the strait have already slipped from September's recovery, so operators with fuel or freight exposure are planning on a short record.
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Trump ruled out US strikes on Iran before the November 3 midterms and kept the naval blockade in force. Brent still traded near $103 a barrel on Friday, and a pledge that lapses on election day returns no Iranian oil to the market.
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Tanker captains crossing the Strait of Hormuz can earn $100,000 a month plus $50,000 a trip, the Financial Times reported. With Hormuz freight at a record $1.3 million a day, Fortune reported, that premium matters more for keeping ships crewed than for what oil costs.
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Kpler says about 40% of Gulf crude now leaves without crossing Hormuz, up from 17% before the war, as exports regain prewar levels. Iran's own exports are blockaded to almost nothing, and it can still strike the onshore oil assets that now carry more of the flow.
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Tehran confirmed a route-management deal while saying reopening depends on alleged US violations. The prediction market cited by Cryptobriefing prices restored normal traffic by August 31 at 10.5%.
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Gulf producers have restored about 80% of Hormuz crude flows with shuttle runs and a partly restarted Saudi pipeline, Seoul Economic Daily reports. Insurance on those runs and Iran's continued force in the strait keep prices on course to stay elevated through year-end.
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Gulf producers are paying $30 million to $40 million a voyage to shuttle crude out of Hormuz, about $15 to $20 a barrel before insurance. They are taking it out of their own margins, and how long that lasts depends on repairs to a damaged Saudi pipeline.
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Poten & Partners puts a Middle East-to-Asia supertanker charter above $1.2 million a day, up from about $30,000 in January. Freight and lost refining capacity help hold Brent above $100 while Hormuz flows sit near 80% of pre-war levels.
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Iran's rial fell past 2.5 million to the dollar in Tehran trading after the country loaded no oil at its terminals in September, a first since 1979. The currency has lost 40% of its value this year while money for oil shipped before the blockade is still coming in.
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Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US lifts its port blockade, frees frozen assets and waives oil sanctions. Tehran pitched the speed as help for Trump in November's midterms, and his own reply so far is a map calling the waterway the 'Trump Strait'.
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7 publishersReality
A one-point Democratic lead on the economy, the first in about a decade, is now the binding constraint on how long Washington can squeeze Iranian crude.
Reality
International oil prices have passed $100 while the US Navy narrows its Hormuz escort windows to two a day, and the overland pipeline that was the alternative to the strait is offline after a drone attack.
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6 publishersReality
September exports came back above 4 million barrels a day from a decade low of 2.4 million in August. The entire Saudi export book now leaves through two Gulf terminals and a transfer anchorage inside the Strait of Hormuz.
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Riyadh's overland line to the Red Sea absorbed February's Hormuz closure. With it down since Friday and the Houthis holding Mokha, Saudi crude reaching Asia is running near a fifth of June's rate, on Kpler's figures.
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Leaving OPEC would not lift a production target Venezuela is currently exempt from, so the interim government would be trading away a vote for nothing measurable, at the moment the White House says it controls the reserves.
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The Energy Secretary's 17 million barrels appears to bundle ship-to-ship transfers that take days into a single day. On TankerTrackers' count Monday moved 9.14 million, which puts the export recovery nearer three-fifths of pre-war than above it.
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Goldman puts regional export flow at 15 to 16 million barrels a day, so the defended Omani corridor is carrying roughly two-thirds of it. That is what an eroding chokepoint premium looks like in volumes rather than in quotes.
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Mohsen Rezaei took over Iran's Supreme National Security Council in the August decrees and says continued economic war ends oil exports from the Persian Gulf. The collateral is mostly other producers' cargo, and the supreme leader who would sign any deal has not been seen in 182 days.
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The threatened "ultimate enforcement" against third countries turns a licensing question into counterparty risk, and more than 80% of Iran's shipped crude goes to a single buyer.
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Flows through the strait have swung between 3.7 million and 6.4 million barrels a day since mid-July, against about 9 million before. The hedge is against variance, not closure.
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