Person
Financial services policy analyst at TD Cowen.
TD Cowen's Jaret Seiberg says the CFTC's leveraged retail crypto rules may not be final until early 2028, colliding with the election cycle. A new administration could revise or drop them, and a rushed schedule invites a procedural court challenge.
Reality
CFTC proposed two crypto leverage rules under existing law on October 5, 20 days after the CLARITY Act stalled 49-50 in the Senate. Until Congress acts, what counts as compliant for leveraged retail crypto will be set by CFTC rulemaking.
Reality
Mike Selig's CFTC put one rule into force Friday and proposed another defining event contracts as swaps under its sole oversight, with 30 days for comment. States have won two of three federal appellate rulings so far, and the Supreme Court has been asked to settle the fight.
Perspective Coverage
6 publishersReality
Kalshi and its investor Paradigm sat with Coinbase, Ripple and Chainlink at the White House, one day before the CFTC's new advisory committee met. The seating chart is the substance.
Perspective Coverage
9 publishersReality
Fed supervision chief Michelle Bowman is scrapping dozens of internal committees and regrouping bank oversight into five regions drawn on state lines. A parallel plan to raise asset thresholds by as much as 50%, on TD Cowen's estimate, will decide more of what banks pay for supervision.
Reality
Donald Trump wants Jerome Powell forced off the Fed board over a renovation audit and sued if he stays, in a seat whose term runs to January 2028. TD Cowen expects the threat to keep Powell there until at least early January 2027, so Trump gets no vacancy to fill.
Reality
Kansas bankers put about $250,000 into a roughly $1 million ad buy against Republican Sen. Roger Marshall over his swipe-fee bill. With co-lead Dick Durbin retiring, a Marshall loss would leave the Credit Card Competition Act without either lead Senate sponsor.
Reality