Person
Far-right former president of Brazil (2019-2022) who remains a dominant figure in Brazilian politics despite ongoing legal troubles.
Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes ordered Eduardo Bolsonaro's arrest less than three weeks before his brother Flávio's runoff against Lula. Two law professors said the US is unlikely to extradite him, so the order lands mainly on Flávio's channel to the Trump administration.
Reality
Datafolha has Lula at 42% and Flavio Bolsonaro at 38% before Sunday's vote, both short of the 50% that avoids a runoff. Holders of Brazilian assets now carry election risk past Sunday into a second vote that the first-round lead does little to settle.
Perspective Coverage
6 publishersReality
Bonn-led researchers estimate that anti-conservation tweets from Jair Bolsonaro's government added 190 to 1,700 square kilometers of Amazon clearing in 2019. Local fines and bans held steady, so the authors trace the extra clearing to lowered expectations of prosecution.
Reality
Amazon clearing has halved since Lula restored the environmental agencies in 2023. The Brazilian researchers who watch the forest expect a win for Flavio Bolsonaro to push the rate back up toward its 2021 peak.
Reality
Forest loss in the Amazon fell 23.5% in 2025, helped by embargoes issued off satellite alerts and bans on rural credit. Brazil held roughly that pace every year from 2004 to 2012, then cut its inspectorate almost in half.
Reality
Andre Marinho says he wrote the March 19 presentation and that it was never shown to an American official. The commercial version of the same trade is already running, and USA Rare Earth closed Serra Verde for $2.8 billion in April.
Reality
The Tribunal Superior Eleitoral is weighing a labelling mandate, a blackout on new synthetic political content and a ban on candidate-recommending systems, with about five weeks left for campaigns and platforms to comply.
Reality