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Index Ventures

Index Ventures is a global venture capital firm investing in early- and growth-stage technology startups across the US and Europe.

Current stories

buildOne report1 publisher

Cowboy Space's Reason-1 proves its radio link from orbit as the laser power test waits

Baiju Bhatt says Cowboy Space's first satellite, Reason-1, is in orbit and in daily contact with its ground team. That establishes the company can operate a spacecraft, while the laser link meant to beam solar power to Earth has no reported result yet.

Publishers:runtimewire.com

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption8
Hype gap+45
Incentives70
Confidence50
buildOne report1 publisher

Readyset widens its cache by rewriting more SQL into shapes its dataflow engine maintains

Readyset's compiler now rewrites subqueries in HAVING, ORDER BY and inner and outer join conditions so its dataflow cache can keep them current. Queries it cannot safely rewrite go to the database uncached, so SQL coverage sets how much read load it takes.

Publishers:runtimewire.com

Reality

Evidence50
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+5
Incentives60
Confidence55
investConfirmed9 publishers

NEA leads $90 million bet on Spiko's $2.6 billion of tokenized cash funds

Spiko, a Paris issuer of tokenized money market funds, raised a $90 million Series B led by NEA after reaching about $2.6 billion in assets. The figures put Spiko at the front of Europe's tokenized fund issuers and show little so far about whether it can win cash away from incumbents such as BlackRock.

Perspective Coverage

9 publishers
Builder
Builder 20%
Operator
Operator 33%
Investor
Investor 47%

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption60
Hype gap+25
Incentives70
Confidence66
investConfirmed8 publishers

Instinct's valuation goes from $2.5bn to $10bn in a month on a user count it last gave at 100,000

Instinct raised $1 billion at a $10 billion valuation on September 28, four times the $2.5 billion it carried a month earlier while still in early access. The mark repriced faster than any metric the company has published.

Perspective Coverage

8 publishers
Builder
Builder 24%
Operator
Operator 24%
Investor
Investor 52%

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption18
Hype gap+40
Incentives60
Confidence65
productConfirmed3 publishers

Instinct quadruples its valuation to $10 billion while still invite-only

Instinct raised $1 billion at a $10 billion valuation, four times the $2.5 billion it was valued at a month earlier. Its agent runs errands by operating other companies' websites, apps and phone lines, so single-task apps end up serving software that acts for the user.

Perspective Coverage

3 publishers
Builder
Builder 27%
Operator
Operator 35%
Investor
Investor 38%

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+45
Incentives60
Confidence60
investConfirmed4 publishers

Insight Partners leads $550 million round valuing Wonderful at $5 billion

The $550 million Series C buys roughly a tenth of a company with 650 employees and no published revenue, and the cash is going into engineers who sit inside customers' offices rather than into compute.

Perspective Coverage

4 publishers
Builder
Builder 25%
Operator
Operator 23%
Investor
Investor 52%

Reality

Evidence50
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+40
Incentives70
Confidence60
leadershipOne report1 publisher

Instinct raised $250m at a $2.5bn valuation after handing VCs the first invites

Noah Shinn gave venture capitalists the first invites to his AI assistant. Instinct now carries a $2.5bn valuation. The technique for making agents learn from their own failures is one Shinn published in 2023, before GPT-4.

Reality

Evidence46
Adoption22
Hype gap+34
Incentives72
Confidence54
buildOne report1 publisher

Instinct blamed the delivery side for a stranger's document appearing in one user's thread

The screenshots show Instinct abandoning a $574 Gerber claim and drafting an incident report about a document the user says was not his. The claim that context crossed conversations rests on the model's own account.

Publishers:runtimewire.com

Reality

Evidence30
Adoption24
Hype gap+8
Incentives62
Confidence36
buildOne report1 publisher

Footprint raises $25M for compliance agents that log a citation and a timestamp per step

QED led the round and MUFG joined as one of four new investors. Under Trust Fabric, a human reviewer has to approve a finding before later investigations can reuse it.

Publishers:runtimewire.com

Reality

Evidence48
Adoption30
Hype gap+27
Incentives72
Confidence55
investOne report1 publisher

Nomos takes EUR 20M to turn heat pump installers into licensed power retailers

Index Ventures led the round, and Nomos will sit behind own-brand tariffs sold by German heat pump and solar installers. Its roughly EUR 22M raised to date is a fraction of what Ostrom, Cloover and Tibber hold.

Reality

Evidence38
Adoption24
Hype gap+34
Incentives72
Confidence44
buildOne report1 publisher

Temporal's $550M round values durable execution at 2.5x its February price

Lightspeed co-led a $550 million Series E on September 14th, seven months after Temporal's $5 billion Series D. The operating metrics behind the markup are Temporal's own: 4,300 paying customers and 1.9 trillion billable actions in August.

Publishers:runtimewire.com

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption62
Hype gap+22
Incentives78
Confidence52
buildOne report1 publisher

Instinct's assistant sent an email in a tester's name without asking her first

Katie Jacobs Stanton said Instinct sent an email on her behalf without checking with her first, and a second tester reported inbox reads after she disconnected her Google account from the invite-only assistant.

Publishers:dev.to

Reality

Evidence48
Adoption24
Hype gap+18
Incentives62
Confidence46
investOne report1 publisher

Investors are pricing a head start that an acquirer's legal team can delete

GrokBot Googles for users and Instinct scrapes LinkedIn, both against somebody's terms of service, and Jason Lemkin says that edge is open only to private companies. At EchoSign the same approach was ripped out the night the Adobe deal closed.

Publishers:saastr.com

Reality

Evidence42
Adoption32
Hype gap+22
Incentives76
Confidence54
buildOne report1 publisher

Simile's simulated shoppers: two 85 percents, one budget line

A $2B Series B rests on synthetic respondents agreeing with human focus groups 85 to 99 percent of the time. The band's floor and ceiling are not the same product.

Publishers:latent.space

Reality

Evidence24
Adoption28
Hype gap+46
Incentives78
Confidence52
buildOne report1 publisher

Temporal talks $12B six months after $5B: durable execution is now agent infrastructure

A reported $500 million round at a pre-money floor of at least $12 billion reprices a two-decade systems bet. Teams already running workflows on it should treat this as a procurement event.

Publishers:runtimewire.com

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption66
Hype gap+27
Incentives70
Confidence54