UK agri-food exports to the EU are down more than a third on 2019, NFU analysis of HMRC data shows
The National Farmers' Union says its analysis of HMRC data shows UK agri-food exports to the EU are down more than a third since 2019. Every figure is set against 2019, so the data shows the size of the gap and leaves its recent direction open.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives60
- Confidence58
HMRC repaid £188m to pension savers after taxing one-off withdrawals as monthly income
HMRC made 54,166 pension withdrawal repayments worth about £188m in 2025/26, City AM's Freedom of Information request found. Savers had to file a claim form to get the money back, so the total reflects who asked as well as who was overtaxed.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence60
UK taxpayers filed 17,300 more P85 departure forms in 2025/26 than a year earlier
Taxpayers filed a record 69,300 P85 forms to leave the UK in 2025/26, up 32% from 52,000, according to UHY Hacker Young. The reported figures do not split filers by occupation or income, and the one adviser Fortune quotes puts the exits down to lifestyle.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence45
Chancellor John Healey is reportedly set to make online marketplaces collect VAT at source for sellers turning over more than £90,000, the Times reported. The Treasury has not confirmed it. Amazon puts the yield, earmarked for business rates cuts, at about £700m against the £1bn reported.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 42%
- Investor
- Investor 53%
Reality
- Evidence35
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives55
- Confidence45
UK ministers are consulting until 8 January 2027 on letting the Serious Fraud Office pay people who report economic crime. Lawyers quoted by City AM warn that a paid tipster who testifies would be cross-examined on the payout.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence66
TUC prices the 2023 bank surcharge cut at £6bn ahead of Healey's budget
The TUC says cutting the bank surcharge from 8% to 3% in 2023 cost the UK £6bn over three years. It wants a higher rate at the 28 October budget, so bank finance teams have a scenario to price while the Treasury has not stated its intentions.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives75
- Confidence40
Kemi Badenoch says a Conservative government would end inheritance tax on family homes and let couples leave an extra £1m tax-free. For owner-operators planning succession, it stays an opposition promise until the party wins power and passes it into law.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 10%
- Operator
- Operator 44%
- Investor
- Investor 46%
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives78
- Confidence66
BasedApp's leak of passports tied to wallets bolsters the case against HMRC's crypto record demands
BasedApp said a breach exposed passport numbers and home addresses linked to customer wallets, without saying how many of its 100,000-plus users were hit. The leak gives Recap a live example in its fight against HMRC's draft power to demand crypto records without tribunal approval.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives55
- Confidence45
About 45,000 Lifetime ISA savers paid withdrawal charges more than once in 2024/25, losing about £760 on average, HMRC figures obtained by Plum show. Savers can keep opening the old account, 25% charge included, until a Treasury replacement arrives on a date not yet set.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives70
- Confidence68
Supreme Court refusal leaves Bolt with an estimated £190m UK VAT bill
Bolt faces an estimated £190m in unpaid UK VAT after the Supreme Court refused to hear its appeal over the tour operators' margin scheme. Uber's £1bn dispute over the same scheme had been waiting on Bolt's case, so the refusal reaches past one company's bill.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives62
- Confidence60
Triyoga's collapse leaves about 100 freelance teachers unpaid for their final weeks
Common Bond, owner of London studio Triyoga, suspended trading on 24 September with about 100 freelance teachers unpaid for their final weeks of classes. Their union's chair expects none of them to be paid, and the union is pursuing a test case for Uber-style worker rights.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap0
- Incentives45
- Confidence55
buildOne report1 publisher A five-column CSV per institution collapses 107 official rate publishers into one dataset
The AllRates dataset on Hugging Face holds 14.6 million rows in each publisher's own direction and label, so the collecting is finished while the inversion, rounding and missing-day rules stay in your code.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives72
- Confidence50
The first year with a crypto box on the Self Assessment return shows a base narrow enough to fit in one room. That changes both what a rate rise would collect and what the 2027 exchange data feed is worth chasing.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 18%
- Operator
- Operator 37%
- Investor
- Investor 45%
Reality
- Evidence78
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives66
- Confidence71
81,000 nudge letters now, matched records in 2027: crypto's privacy premium is being repriced
HMRC's crypto warning letters are up 25% to 81,000 and still largely guesswork. From 2027, CARF replaces the guessing with matched account data, and waiting stops being cheap.
Reality
- Evidence54
- Adoption46
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives71
- Confidence57
Hargreaves Lansdown, UK's biggest D2C investment platform, opens Bitcoin ETN access at 0.35% a year
The platform holding 33.6% of direct-to-consumer assets is charging 0.35%, capped at £12.50 a month, to hold notes that HMRC has confined since 6 April to an ISA fewer than 150,000 savers appear to use.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives66
- Confidence45
buildOne report1 publisher Mutation testing pinned the rounding logic, but a separate 3p VAT bug slipped past 202 green tests
A .NET invoicing library built with Claude Code came with property tests, hand-calculated golden scenarios and green CI on three operating systems, all of it blind to the half-penny inputs where half-up and banker's rounding diverge.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption10
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives28
- Confidence55
Orphan-free quote references place the Love Electric sample inside a production database
A forum seller wants $600 for what they say are 877,000 EV salary sacrifice driver records, and the 999-row sample published as proof holds up under structural testing in ways a fabricated file usually does not.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption22
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives62
- Confidence55