France's 10-year yield has climbed at least 80 basis points in two months to 4.8%
France's 10-year government bond yield reached the 4.8% range on the 12th, its highest in 25 years, en.sedaily.com reported. The budget cost builds only as debt rolls over, and the contagion case for Italy and Greece rests on thinner evidence.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence45
France's deficit is heading to 5.4% with no plan yet to bring it down
France's 10-year bond yield hit its highest level since July 2002 last week, just short of 5%. The Guardian reported that business investment is suffering from the uncertainty, and 82% of firms in a Medef survey are pessimistic about the next government's economic policy.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives40
- Confidence50
France's government paused stun grenades after a teenager lost his hand in clashes with police during school protests. The unrest comes six months before the vote to replace Macron, at a time when Semafor reports French bond yields at multidecade highs.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence60
Canada's search for partners outside Washington now has a work order behind it, because the two governments told their space agencies and defence ministries to share infrastructure. The gas Macron asked for still waits on contracts.
Reality
- Evidence64
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives72
- Confidence58
Finland became the tenth member of France's forward deterrence initiative on September 14. Membership costs nothing and puts no warheads on member soil in peacetime, so the clearest price on the news sits in a prediction market.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives62
- Confidence60
French covered bonds undercut their own sovereign by at most 13 basis points
Bonds secured on French mortgage pools have priced inside OATs all year, by 6 to 13 basis points. France's ten-year still pays 90 over Germany, so the collateral takes back a seventh of that at best.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+40
- Incentives55
- Confidence55
France now pays a wider premium over Germany than Spain, Italy or Greece
The government halved its growth forecast for the year to 0.5% and INSEE went to 0.4%, while the 10-year at 4.448% is the highest since 2008 and Roland Lescure said the 5% deficit target is gone.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives62
- Confidence46
France's Ukraine package runs on four clocks, and the Rafales are on the slowest
The 16 jets arrive in 2028-2029. The parts that touch this war are an Aster-30 shipment moved forward by weeks and a licence to build interceptors inside Ukraine.
Reality
- Evidence24
- Adoption16
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives72
- Confidence30
France's under-15 ban falls, and age-gating now has to pass a proportionality test
The Constitutional Council accepted the goal and rejected the method. Teams scoping age assurance are building to a mandate with no defined technical standard and no settled shape.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives58
- Confidence60
Hungary is sinking two barges to keep Paks running. The fuel is fine; the river is not
Budapest's escalation from dumped rock to scuttled barges to a submerged dam shows what a 2,000 MW nuclear plant actually depends on: water level.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives62
- Confidence41