Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said he will spend the next 100 days on supervision, regulation and payments processing after months absorbed by monetary policy. It lands days before the Fed's Oct. 27-28 meeting, the first of the rate decisions that will compete for his time.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 9%
- Operator
- Operator 25%
- Investor
- Investor 66%
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence70
Activity rose in nine of 12 Fed districts in the October Beige Book, but most reported little or no change in consumer spending. More than half said high-income households supplied much of it, and a PYMNTS survey showed confidence falling for a second month.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 13%
- Operator
- Operator 37%
- Investor
- Investor 50%
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence65
Boston Fed's Collins expects rates to rise "a bit further" with inflation nearly six years above 2%
Boston Fed President Susan Collins said the Fed will have to raise rates "a bit further" after last month's 25-basis-point hike. Her own central case still has inflation easing to 2%, so how far depends on whether fuel and AI-construction costs spread.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap−5
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence58
Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack, a voter this year, said Monday she prefers smaller, faster rate adjustments after September's quarter-point hike. Cryptopolitan counts 15 of 33 major central banks tightening in six months, a 45% share.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence64
Fed Governor Waller signals more rate hikes with room to space them out
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he expects more rate hikes to bring inflation back to 2%, though they need not come at consecutive meetings. For anyone borrowing at short-term rates, the open question is now timing, and the Oct. 27-28 FOMC meeting is the first chance to act.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence60
Federal Reserve minutes show most officials see room for one more rate increase this year after September's unanimous quarter-point hike to 3.75%-4%. Many officials called it insurance against persistent inflation and committed to no set path.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 8%
- Operator
- Operator 28%
- Investor
- Investor 64%
Reality
- Evidence74
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives40
- Confidence70
The Fed took its target range to 3.75-4.00% on September 16 and raised its median PCE forecast to 3.7% in the same document, so the real cost of holding a metal that pays no coupon moved by about a sixth of a point.
Perspective Coverage
14 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 3%
- Operator
- Operator 27%
- Investor
- Investor 70%
Reality
- Evidence80
- Adoption75
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives30
- Confidence75
September Fed hike odds jumped 24.5 points in twenty-four hours
The Wall Street Journal reports that markets now expect an increase at next week's meeting and at least three more by June, with the effective funds rate at 3.63% inside a target range of 3.50% to 3.75%.
Reality
- Evidence25
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives55
- Confidence30
Hassett's call for Powell to quit chases one FOMC vote on a committee that hiked unanimously
Kevin Hassett wants Jerome Powell off the Fed board, a move that would let Trump nominate someone to one of the FOMC's 12 votes. Powell voted for the September hike Hassett says he disagreed with, so the seat is worth one dissent until other voters move.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives70
- Confidence50
Bureau of Economic Analysis revisions cut July's core-services PCE inflation by 34 basis points to 3.35%, partly via new methods for three categories. August came in at the same 3.35% on the new method, so the revision lowered the level of inflation without slowing it.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 3%
- Operator
- Operator 25%
- Investor
- Investor 72%
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives45
- Confidence64
Fed Governor Barr counts AI data center spending among the reasons rates should keep rising
Fed Governor Michael Barr said more rate hikes are likely needed, citing inflation above 2% for five-plus years and a surge in data center investment. He also urged planning now for AI job losses, casting the technology as a price pressure today and a labor risk later.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence60
Hassett's case against another Fed hike rests on a three-month inflation window
Kevin Hassett, the White House's top economist, says three-month core inflation near 2% leaves the Fed little room to raise rates. Wednesday's August PCE release will test his window on the inflation gauge the Fed itself prefers.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives80
- Confidence50
Fed's watchdog ties a year-long unresolved removal of classified FOMC files to unclear division roles
Fed's inspector general found that unclear roles among Fed divisions left a former staffer's removal of classified FOMC files unresolved for over a year. The Fed says its fix for escalating such alerts arrives by the first quarter of 2027, and part of the removed material has not been retrieved.
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap0
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence62
The Fed's quarter-point hike arrived with a projections table carrying eighteen members' views of where rates finish the year and none from Kevin Warsh, who rejects forward guidance and says the next decision follows the data.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 43%
- Investor
- Investor 52%
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives35
- Confidence68
Barr argues for further hikes one week after the Fed's first increase in three years
Governor Michael Barr thinks last week's increase probably will not get inflation back to 2%. The committee's own projections leave floating-rate borrowers budgeting for either one more quarter point or two before December.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives55
- Confidence55
Bettors put a Democratic Senate 16 points above Piper Sandler's raised odds
Kalshi prices Democrats taking the Senate at 61% and Polymarket at 65%, while Piper Sandler's upgrade reached only 45% and still calls the chamber roughly a toss-up. The two baselines sit 16 points apart.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives45
- Confidence52
BofA's front-end short needs twice the Fed hikes swaps are pricing
Mark Cabana's team has clients short SOFR and Fed Funds futures on a view that the federal funds target climbs toward 5.5%. Current swap pricing stops 75 basis points short of that.
Reality
- Evidence28
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives72
- Confidence30
The 0.4-point tax-refund tailwind in 2026 growth is projected to reverse next year
None of the Fed's own participants put the risks to GDP growth on the downside, in the same week the central bank raised rates for the first time in three years. Business Insider argues the fiscal support under 2026 spending reverses next year.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence45
A single participant's dot now sets the Fed's 2029 funds-rate median
Seventeen of the eighteen participants at the September 15-16 meeting filed projections for 2029, and with an odd count the median stops being an average of two dots and becomes the ninth person's number.
Publishers:federalreserve.gov
Reality
- Evidence74
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives40
- Confidence76
Warsh can quiet one seat on an FOMC that averaged 196 speeches a year
American Banker's count of more than 8,000 FOMC speeches shows the growth since 1979 came almost entirely from officials other than the chair. This week's expected quarter-point move is the first test of the new approach.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives45
- Confidence64