Justice Samuel Alito's recusal means a 4-4 Supreme Court split would keep Boulder's climate suit against Exxon Mobil and Suncor alive in state court. Dozens of similar city and county suits turn on the same ruling, and the companies warn the damages could run to billions of dollars.
Perspective Coverage
8 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 18%
- Operator
- Operator 47%
- Investor
- Investor 35%
Reality
- Evidence82
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives60
- Confidence72
Exxon and Suncor stake their Boulder defense on the Constitution's structure
Exxon Mobil and Suncor argue that the Constitution's structure bars Boulder's climate-cost suit from state court, in a case the Supreme Court hears October 5. Vox reports they cite no clause of the text, so the case tests the justices' textualism as much as Boulder's claim.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives60
- Confidence40
China shuts off fuel exports with a quarter of its refining capacity idle
China has suspended refined fuel exports with its refiners at about 75% of capacity and US plants at 97%. Any extra diesel now depends on Beijing, while Washington weighs an export ban that would push higher prices onto other importers.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives60
- Confidence40
Venezuela hires the money doctor: Hanke to draft a law killing the bolivar and the central bank
The National Assembly named Steve Hanke special adviser and told him to write a full dollarization law. He puts the odds of passage at 50% to 80%.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives65
- Confidence40
Romania Lost a Fifth of Its Refining Capacity to Sanctions and Insolvency, as Carlyle's Lukoil Deal Awaits OFAC Approval
Carlyle agreed to pay $22 billion for Lukoil's overseas assets in January 2026. OFAC's licences since then cover negotiation and maintenance through October 22, and Romania's Petrotel refinery went into insolvency.
Reality
- Evidence22
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives45
- Confidence30
Starbase Louisiana turns Starship scaling into a fixed-capex problem. At 30 flights a day the pads cost about $913,000 a launch to amortize; at 1,000 flights a year they cost $10 million.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 30%
- Operator
- Operator 30%
- Investor
- Investor 40%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption12
- Hype gap+62
- Incentives80
- Confidence71