buildOne report1 publisher White House weighs Treasury permission for US firms to use sanctioned tankers on lawful cargo
The Trump administration is discussing easing sanctions on some shadow-fleet tankers to curb record freight rates, Reuters reported. Under one option, US companies would apply to Treasury before using them; no mechanism is final.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap−10
- Incentives60
- Confidence45
Treasury yields follow diesel more closely than crude for the first time, Energy Aspects says
US diesel sits 71% above a year ago against 56% for crude, a split Energy Aspects' Amrita Sen links to inflation and Treasury yields. A fuel clause pegged to crude has recovered only about four-fifths of the rise in what truckers and farmers pay.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives45
- Confidence50
Kpler says about 40% of Gulf crude now leaves without crossing Hormuz, up from 17% before the war, as exports regain prewar levels. Iran's own exports are blockaded to almost nothing, and it can still strike the onshore oil assets that now carry more of the flow.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 39%
- Investor
- Investor 56%
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives50
- Confidence60
buildOne report1 publisher Freight climbs to 27% of a delivered oil barrel's cost as Hormuz traffic returns
Poten & Partners puts a Middle East-to-Asia supertanker charter above $1.2 million a day, up from about $30,000 in January. Freight and lost refining capacity help hold Brent above $100 while Hormuz flows sit near 80% of pre-war levels.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
Diesel's record crack spread pays refiners more per barrel than the crude inside it
U.S. diesel futures hit their highest since 2022 and the crack spread topped $106 a barrel. Against $90.33 crude, that puts 54 cents of every wholesale dollar in the refining step. That margin is priced in months. A plant is priced in years.
Reality
- Evidence44
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives68
- Confidence47