States and tribal nations press the Supreme Court to rule on sports prediction contracts
Thirty-nine states, D.C., 145 tribal nations, the NFL and Gary Gensler urged the Supreme Court to decide whether sports prediction contracts are swaps. Two of the three appeals courts to rule have called those contracts state-regulated gambling, so platforms on federal licenses still face two possible regulators.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives65
- Confidence55
Kalshi paid $180,000 for lobbying by a Dodd-Frank author who called its main product gambling
Kalshi paid Blanche Lincoln's firm $180,000 in 2024 to lobby on the event contracts she warned in 2010 could become a backdoor for sports gambling. Her firm now asks the CFTC to take sole charge of the sports contracts behind most of Kalshi's volume, while state regulators can quote her 2010 speech back at her.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives80
- Confidence50
Fed stress-test reforms hand banks a January comment window on the scenarios that set their capital
Federal Reserve stress-test reforms finalized Wednesday put large-bank scenarios out for public comment each January and average results over two years. Banks now get a say in the inputs to their capital requirements, so the question for shareholders is whether banks release the excess capital they have held against random results.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives72
- Confidence58
Oregon judge rules the CFPB can draw Fed money even when the Fed runs at a loss
Judge Ann Aiken ruled that Russell Vought's zero funding request for the CFPB was unconstitutional, in a suit brought by 22 attorneys general. The ruling keeps the bureau's claim on the Fed intact through Fed losses, pending appeal, and leaves the size of each request to the director.
Reality
- Evidence64
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives45
- Confidence58
Sports contracts run above 80% of a market that went from $2bn in August 2025 to $38.5bn. Whether the justices take New Jersey's petition this fall will decide which compliance bill the industry pays.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives70
- Confidence58
Hill and Cotton revive their 2018 bid to exempt brokerages under 150 staff from PCAOB audits
French Hill and Tom Cotton want broker-dealers with fewer than 150 employees and no custody of client assets out of the PCAOB audit regime that Dodd-Frank extended to every registered dealer in 2010.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption18
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives72
- Confidence55
CME sues the CFTC over a market 21 times its own crypto futures book
The exchange wants Bitcoin perpetuals reclassified as swaps, a label that would put Kalshi under swap dealer registration and higher capital requirements. CME's crypto futures did about $4.4 trillion of notional last year.
Reality
- Evidence28
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives72
- Confidence38
Single-family offices deploy billions and file almost nothing
A wealth-data vendor counts 187 unregistered family offices in Texas alone, with public ties to at least 1,033 transactions. Regulators and co-investors are both working without the file.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives65
- Confidence52