White House office that advises the US President on economic policy, producing analysis and estimates to inform trade, fiscal, and regulatory decisions.
Ahead of Tuesday's cloture vote the White House is answering bank lobbyists with a scenario tool, while Fairshake's $30 million to Democrats is already spent and Republicans including John Cornyn weigh a no.
Reality
Eight trade groups told Senate leaders the bill's rewards carve-outs would let stablecoins pay interest by another name. The White House's own April study puts the lending at stake at $2.1 billion, or 0.02%.
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The American Bankers Association warns that as much as $6.6 trillion of transactional deposits is exposed to stablecoin migration. That pool is about 2.6 times what every US bank under $10 billion holds in total, and small-bank deposits grew anyway.
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In Foreign Affairs, the former director of Biden's National Economic Council argues Washington has an elaborate apparatus for refusing inbound capital and almost no route to approving it. The two federal measures it names are still proposals.
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The stablecoin rewards clause turns on whether a payment must be economically equivalent to deposit interest or only substantially similar to it, and an American Banker op-ed argues the swap would sink the bill.
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Jared Bernstein, who chaired Biden's Council of Economic Advisers, calls the $40 trillion figure a distraction, and names the two inputs that changed his mind: the price of carrying the debt, and Congress.
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August's surprise 162,000 jobs drew a grievance session rather than a victory lap, and the threat that followed, stopping trade with foreign countries over rates, has to price against $40 trillion of debt rolling at a 4.79% ten-year.
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A new Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy report tiers 40 jurisdictions by transshipment risk. Its headline figure is 3.4 to 8.9 times what the White House's own economists estimate.
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