Peat fires produce most of Indonesia's haze from under a third of its wildfires
Peat burns in under a third of Indonesia's wildfires but yields most of the haze, according to Greenpeace research. Fire emissions reached 140.5 megatonnes by Oct. 6, the highest since 2019, Copernicus data show.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives50
- Confidence60
Antarctica's ozone hole reached 27.4 million square kilometres in September, a size topped only in 2000 and 2015. Its forecasters blame a cold, strong polar vortex, so the size says little about the Montreal Protocol until the weather's share is measured.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives30
- Confidence68
Copernicus finds 34% of the world breathed extremely poor ozone air through mid-September
Copernicus, the EU's atmosphere monitor, says 34% of the world's population breathed "extremely poor" ozone air from January 1 to September 15. Its report partly blames heat and wildfires and finds ozone flat even where emission rules have cut other pollutants.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
The World Meteorological Organization's new bulletin puts the Antarctic hole below its long-term average for a second year running, and the researchers reading the same data disagree about whether the recovery is on schedule.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives65
- Confidence58
Indonesian fires outran 2015's emissions for one measured week
CAMS is comparing this season to 2015 and 2019, both exceptional El Nino years. For anyone planning around regional haze, the more durable input is the drained peatland that turns a dry spell into weeks of smoke downwind.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption68
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives32
- Confidence60
Indonesia's peat fires already match big El Nino years, and the forecast peak is October
Copernicus says the emissions match previous major El Nino years for the date. The 1997 analogue reached 2.5 gigatonnes of CO2, roughly four months of global fossil fuel burning at then-current rates.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives38
- Confidence52