Kalshi and its investor Paradigm sat with Coinbase, Ripple and Chainlink at the White House, one day before the CFTC's new advisory committee met. The seating chart is the substance.
Perspective Coverage
9 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 19%
- Operator
- Operator 38%
- Investor
- Investor 43%
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives65
- Confidence55
Crypto's 635-page Clarity Act stalled in the Senate with no realistic path back before year-end, Cato's Ryan Chan-Wei wrote. He blames an ethics dispute over conflicts at the highest levels of government, and that dispute will meet whatever bill the next Congress writes.
Perspective Coverage
17 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 16%
- Operator
- Operator 41%
- Investor
- Investor 43%
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption18
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives65
- Confidence62
SEC staff said on September 25 that token buybacks on functioning networks and staking receipts that only record ownership do not create investment contracts. Because they are staff views, live networks can plan repurchases around them while a future SEC or a private plaintiff could still contest them.
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives50
- Confidence70
Kristin Smith becomes the Blockchain Association's interim CEO on October 17 and keeps her job as president of the Solana Policy Institute. The industry-wide group will share its chief executive with one chain's lobby while the Clarity Act sits stalled in the Senate.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 13%
- Operator
- Operator 45%
- Investor
- Investor 42%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives60
- Confidence70
Crypto's market-structure bill finished eleven votes short of the Senate's 60
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act lost 49-50 on September 15. Coinbase fell 12% and Circle 13% the same day, at the end of an election-cycle lobbying effort cryptobriefing estimates at $100m to $225m.
Reality
- Evidence28
- Adoption18
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives68
- Confidence32
Twelve points of Clarity Act odds cost bitcoin at least $1,586 before the cloture vote
Polymarket took the Clarity Act from about 14% to nearly 30% and back to 18%, and bitcoin's $79,586 high on September 14 unwound below $78,000 by the next morning. The down leg values full passage near 14%.
Reality
- Evidence35
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives60
- Confidence40
Cboe wants 3x bitcoin ETFs, and it has to ask the SEC the slow way
A Cboe BZX filing for triple-leveraged bitcoin and ether funds falls outside the exchange's generic listing standards, so it needs a bespoke Section 19(b) rule change.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption12
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives62
- Confidence52