Standard
U.S. federal law governing futures, swaps, and derivatives trading on commodities, establishing the CFTC's regulatory authority over these markets.
CFTC issued an interim final rule on Oct. 9 excluding state- and tribal-licensed casino sportsbooks from the swap definition. A proposal published the same day would treat exchange-traded sports and politics event contracts as swaps, so federal treatment would follow the venue.
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TD Cowen's Jaret Seiberg says the CFTC's leveraged retail crypto rules may not be final until early 2028, colliding with the election cycle. A new administration could revise or drop them, and a rushed schedule invites a procedural court challenge.
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CFTC proposed two crypto leverage rules under existing law on October 5, 20 days after the CLARITY Act stalled 49-50 in the Senate. Until Congress acts, what counts as compliant for leveraged retail crypto will be set by CFTC rulemaking.
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CFTC's October 5 advance notice seeks comment on a federally registered crypto venue for retail trades made with leverage, margin or financing. Chair Michael Selig says registration is voluntary and a mandate over every spot trade needs Congress.
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Former CFTC acting chair Caroline Pham says the Commodity Exchange Act already gives the agency extensive crypto authority after its October 5 proposal. The CLARITY Act failed to advance in September, so regulators are left with existing powers while lawmakers weigh more legislation.
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Thirty-nine states, D.C., 145 tribal nations, the NFL and Gary Gensler urged the Supreme Court to decide whether sports prediction contracts are swaps. Two of the three appeals courts to rule have called those contracts state-regulated gambling, so platforms on federal licenses still face two possible regulators.
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Mike Selig's CFTC put one rule into force Friday and proposed another defining event contracts as swaps under its sole oversight, with 30 days for comment. States have won two of three federal appellate rulings so far, and the Supreme Court has been asked to settle the fight.
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New Jersey's bid for Supreme Court review of a ruling that shields Kalshi's sports contracts from state gaming law won the NFL's backing in an October 8 brief. The league counts its games as $1.8 billion of $3.3 billion traded on prediction markets on the season's first Sunday, so a ruling would decide who regulates most of that money.
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CFTC proposed two crypto rules creating a narrower exchange license for leveraged, margined and financed trades, open to comment for 60 days. Plain spot trading falls outside the CFTC's authority, and officials say they cannot yet size that leftover market.
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Sixth Circuit judges let Ohio and Tennessee enforce gambling law against Kalshi's sports contracts, putting two of three appeals courts on the states' side. New Jersey's contrary ruling still stands, so the same federally registered contract now has a different legal status depending on the state.
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Judge Martha Pacold barred Illinois from enforcing its license and criminal rules against Kalshi but deferred a fee stack that takes 15% of gross receipts. The fees stay on the state's books while she hears more argument on whether a charge that size amounts to regulation.
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Bitcoin twice topped $86,000 on Tuesday after the CFTC floated crypto rules, then slipped to $85,500, about 2.5% below its $87,722 yearly open. Liquidations shrank to $30 million on the day, so a quiet derivatives market goes into the upcoming consumer price report.
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Better Markets says the CFTC lacks the mandate to police leveraged retail crypto under the plan it floated on October 5. Its harder objection for the agency to answer is legal: the group says the statute the CFTC relies on was written for leveraged precious-metals fraud.
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CFTC on Oct. 5 opened a consultation on an optional federal registration for crypto venues offering retail leverage, with 60 days for comments. Chairman Michael Selig also proposed a 28-day wallet-delivery test that would generally exempt those trades from registered-exchange trading rules.
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CFTC staff let U.S. exchanges remove expiry dates from perpetual-style index futures on October 3, with five days' notice to holders of open positions. Contracts on other assets are excluded, so this is a narrow step toward bringing onshore a product that has mostly traded offshore.
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CFTC's October 5 notice suggests retail crypto counts as delivered within 28 days only if the customer holds the private keys. That preliminary test would decide whether coins kept on exchange books fall under rules the agency has not yet proposed.
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Michael Selig filed an early-stage crypto rulemaking with the White House budget office two days after the Senate stalled the CLARITY Act, and the filing's own schedule puts a binding rule in late 2027.
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Judge Martha Pacold on October 2 partly enjoined Illinois licensing of Kalshi and Coinbase sports contracts as likely preempted by federal law. Illinois' transaction fees went to further briefing, so the per-trade cost of serving the state is still unsettled.
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Coinbase won CFTC registration for its own clearinghouse on September 28, ten months after applying, covering only fully collateralized contracts. Its margined book and planned stock perpetuals still clear through partners, so the leveraged trading that dominates crypto volume stays outside.
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CFTC sent the White House two rules on Sept. 28 that would define event contracts as swaps and carve out casino-style gambling products. The agency is trying to settle by rule a state-federal fight that has split appeals courts and now sits before the Supreme Court.
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