World Meteorological Organization forecasts put El Niño's peak around December and give it a near-100% chance of lasting through February 2027. Its maps tilt regional odds toward heat, drought or flood, and WMO says they do not replace local forecasts.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 28%
- Operator
- Operator 52%
- Investor
- Investor 20%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence68
Three years of glacier loss equal a third of the world's annual freshwater withdrawals
Freshwater storage has been declining for ten years. The WMO's new report locates the loss in the slow reserves, groundwater and glaciers, that used to absorb bad years.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives40
- Confidence68
The World Meteorological Organization's new bulletin puts the Antarctic hole below its long-term average for a second year running, and the researchers reading the same data disagree about whether the recovery is on schedule.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives65
- Confidence58
WMO puts near-100% odds on El Nino lasting through February 2027
For the first time, a WMO update on El Nino carries almost no hedge about the tropical Pacific over the next two seasons. The harder question, what any given basin actually gets, sits in a second document.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption25
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives65
- Confidence58
WMO puts this El Nino on course for the strongest Pacific anomaly in its 40-year record
The forecast peak of 3.6C sits well past the line where the WMO's own scale stops resolving anything, and because ocean heat vents slowly, the year that inherits the temperature is 2027 rather than 2026.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption22
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives62
- Confidence52