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Cato Institute

Cato Institute is a Washington, D.C. think tank promoting libertarian policy research on economics, government, and foreign affairs.

Current stories

leadershipOne report1 publisher

New York Fed estimates tariffs added 2.9 points to US inflation through February

Tariffs added about 2.9 percentage points to US inflation through February, New York Fed research finds. For operators setting next quarter's budgets with the midterms weeks away, the recent data show input costs still climbing.

Publishers:cbsnews.com

Reality

Evidence50
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+10
Incentives60
Confidence50
investConfirmed17 publishers

Retiring senators Lummis and Tillis leave crypto's Clarity Act to the next Congress

Crypto's 635-page Clarity Act stalled in the Senate with no realistic path back before year-end, Cato's Ryan Chan-Wei wrote. He blames an ethics dispute over conflicts at the highest levels of government, and that dispute will meet whatever bill the next Congress writes.

Perspective Coverage

17 publishers
Builder
Builder 16%
Operator
Operator 41%
Investor
Investor 43%

Reality

Evidence70
Adoption18
Hype gap+15
Incentives65
Confidence62
investOne report1 publisher

Colorado's Amendment 87 would lift the top state income tax rate from 4.4% to 8.4%

Colorado voters decide in November whether to swap a 39-year flat 4.4% income tax for six brackets topping out at 8.4% above $1 million. Only those earning over $500,000 would pay more, and how much depends partly on a rival measure on the same ballot.

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+5
Incentives65
Confidence62
leadershipOne report1 publisher

H-1B uncertainty makes skilled foreign staff wary of promotions and moves

Skilled foreign workers are putting off homes and job moves amid the contested $100,000 H-1B fee, according to Business Insider interviews. For managers, a promotion or transfer that needs an amended petition can look like risk to the employee holding the visa.

Reality

Evidence50
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+20
Incentives45
Confidence45
investOne report1 publisher

Albanese faults OpenAI for a three-month delay in disclosing a Medicare portal breach

Anthony Albanese faulted OpenAI for taking roughly three months to disclose that its agent breached a Medicare statistics portal in June. The breach happened in OpenAI's own evaluation, and so far its only reported cost is a head of government's public complaint about timing.

Publishers:decrypt.co

Reality

Evidence35
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+30
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence40
investConfirmed3 publishers

The carrier left the Pacific: Iran operations now reprice risk into Asia-exposed supply chains

The USS George Washington is heading to the Middle East to relieve the USS Abraham Lincoln, leaving the western Pacific without a US carrier. The tradable Iran risk fell anyway.

Perspective Coverage

3 publishers
Builder
Builder 7%
Operator
Operator 58%
Investor
Investor 35%

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+40
Incentives35
Confidence58
leadershipOne report1 publisher

Texas exempts six in ten older and disabled homeowners from the school property levy

Relief for older and disabled homeowners keeps widening in Texas. That leaves first-time buyers still inside the school levy pricing an increase nobody has yet measured for them.

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption55
Hype gap+25
Incentives45
Confidence45
investOne report1 publisher

New York's millionaire count grew 48% in the five years through its 2021 rate increase

A Fiscal Policy Institute read of IRS data finds the most progressive tax states hold the densest millionaire populations, and the number of millionaires leaving New York fell in the year the state raised its top rate.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+18
Incentives70
Confidence57
scienceOne report1 publisher

A $100,000 H-1B fee was paid on 85 applications in five months

A March court filing shows DHS collected the fee on 85 applications in five months and took in about $28 million less than the year before, while all 25 tech companies IEEE Spectrum asked about their response stayed quiet.

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption40
Hype gap+25
Incentives55
Confidence55
scienceOne report1 publisher

Demographic controls erase most of the test-score gap between schools with and without universal meals

Districts increasingly justify universal school meals on test scores. The three kinds of evidence available point in different directions once you separate which schools adopt the program from what the program does.

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption82
Hype gap0
Incentives45
Confidence52
investOne report1 publisher

Austin delivered about 28 middle-income homes for each low-income one

On the only operating statement in the evidence, a rent an extremely low-income tenant could pay falls about $717 a month short of debt and expenses. That gap falls outside what a construction tax credit covers, and 4,500 empty Austin units measure it.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption68
Hype gap+12
Incentives65
Confidence55
investOne report1 publisher

Pentagon's loan office takes 35% of a Venezuelan oil venture at a stated cost of zero

The Office of Strategic Capital was chartered in 2022 to lend against critical technology. Its loan authority has since reached $200bn, and the price of its new 35% oil stake is described only as no cost to the taxpayer.

Publishers:semafor.com

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption58
Hype gap+42
Incentives78
Confidence56
investOne report1 publisher

Meta's $17 billion settlement puts a cash number on the tech backlash

Consumer anger at platforms now has a capped, payable figure attached to it, and the companies most exposed to the read-across are the two AI labs approaching public offerings at nearly a trillion dollars each.

Publishers:cnbc.com

Reality

Evidence44
Adoption63
Hype gap+24
Incentives63
Confidence51
investOne report1 publisher

Trust fund depletion in late 2032 puts a 22% benefit cut inside working-age planning horizons

CBO has net federal interest passing $1 trillion in 2026 and reaching $2.1 trillion by 2036, which is the arithmetic that decides how much room Congress has to close the 2032 shortfall without touching payroll taxes or benefit formulas.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence52
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+28
Incentives58
Confidence44
investOne report1 publisher

Tariff refunds now outrun collections, and net customs revenue has gone negative

The Treasury paid out $71.2 billion in tariff refunds across May and June against $45.6 billion collected, per Tax Foundation figures. The deficit case for the import taxes now runs backwards.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence57
Adoption72
Hype gap+18
Incentives62
Confidence58