Prop 40's one-time billionaire tax faces doubts it will stay one-time, and its receipts would swing with the market
California's Prop 40 would levy a one-time 5% tax on the assets of residents worth over $1 billion, raising $100 billion by its union backer's estimate. Its lasting effect on a top-heavy, market-sensitive budget turns on repetition, the very spread opponents predict when they call it a Trojan horse.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives75
- Confidence40
Prop 40's union sponsor lines up Florida for 2028 whatever California voters decide
Dave Regan, the union leader behind California's Proposition 40 billionaire tax, says he would like a Florida vote in 2028 even if California says no. That makes wealth-tax and residency planning for the very rich a question about more than one state.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives75
- Confidence50
Property magnate David Reuben has moved to Monaco about 18 months after the UK put long-term residents' global assets under its 40% inheritance tax. In California, where Prop 40's residency date has passed, opponents of the 5% levy are outspending supporters almost six to one.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 33%
- Investor
- Investor 62%
Reality
- Evidence66
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives70
- Confidence64
California's billionaire tax must outpoll two rival amendments to survive
California voters will decide in November on Proposition 40, a one-time 5% tax on the net worth of the state's 250 billionaires, who hold $2.3 trillion. Whether any of them pays turns on a three-way vote count, since two rival amendments on the same ballot can undo it.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives65
- Confidence45
Sergey Brin's $102 million against Prop 40 equals 0.8% of the tax he could owe
Sergey Brin has given $102 million to defeat California's Prop 40, a one-time 5% billionaire tax that could cost him about $13 billion. The state's $100 billion estimate depends as much on how many of its 200 billionaires stay resident as on the November vote.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives78
- Confidence60
Six Nobel laureates endorse a one-time 5% tax on California's $2.3 trillion of billionaire wealth
A letter from six Nobel economists asks Californians to treat Proposition 40 as the start of a movement other states, Washington and other countries copy. The vote is in November, and the state's own pollster has supporters behind.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives82
- Confidence56
SEIU's own outside counsel corroborates a coercion claim over Prop. 40's endorsement
Two law firms hired by different tiers of SEIU examined Dave Regan's conduct. One corroborated an account that he pressed the state council to endorse his retroactive 5% wealth tax under threat of a federal labor investigation.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives90
- Confidence55
Prop 40 leads 48-41, which is exactly the position a wealth tax loses from
California's one-time 5% billionaire asset tax is ahead but under 50% with 11% undecided. The poll's own director says that is a red flag. It is also not a reason to stop planning.
Reality
- Evidence66
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives62
- Confidence63
Rivani asks $175 a foot for a Miami Beach building he bought at $383
Fortune reports that 19 of Florida's 20 richest billionaires live in Miami-Dade County. The bootstrapped Miami Beach office project chasing that money asks rents worth 28.5% of its stated $100 million cost every year.
Reality
- Evidence36
- Adoption52
- Hype gap+33
- Incentives80
- Confidence57
Billionaires are hedging California's wealth tax for about twelve basis points
The San Francisco Democratic Party broke with its state party 17-4 to oppose Prop 40, but the six billionaires who have already ended their California residency are the only votes on this measure that are already counted.
Reality
- Evidence54
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives86
- Confidence46
Mark Cuban and Ro Khanna spent a weekend arguing on X about California's Proposition 40. The operative question for founders is where the cash comes from.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption52
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives85
- Confidence62