USS Abraham Lincoln returned to San Diego on Thursday after a record 321-day deployment supporting the US war with Iran. The Navy's published figures measure what its air wing flew and burned, while the strain on the crew came to light through Congress and the press.
Perspective Coverage
8 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 18%
- Operator
- Operator 68%
- Investor
- Investor 14%
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives70
- Confidence58
Centcom's chief flew to a carrier with reported food, water and mental-health problems. The endurance limit, not the diplomacy, is what energy and shipping risk should be priced against.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 47%
- Investor
- Investor 48%
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives60
- Confidence60
Iran's overland detour quadruples the freight bill on a China container
Iran pushed its trade onto land routes after the blockade closed its southern ports. Those corridors are clearing cargo at four times the sea freight cost and weeks of delay, and total non-oil trade is falling.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption40
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives75
- Confidence52
CENTCOM dates its six-month Hormuz shipping high to the start of the war
Adm. Brad Cooper says the US military supported the transit of a billion barrels of oil in two months, about 16 million a day, and that Iran exported none, while monitors put Hormuz traffic well below prewar.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+36
- Incentives78
- Confidence48
Six months into a war that has been formally under ceasefire since June, the US says it struck Iranian oil tankers and Tehran's chief negotiator promises heavier retaliation, which changes what a charterer has to underwrite.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption40
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives78
- Confidence56
Treasury promises restrictions "never seen" and the Pentagon says the blockade can run indefinitely, while a record carrier deployment and 45 lost Reapers show what holding the line costs.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption74
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives78
- Confidence52